XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is sitting on the same ascending trendline that has triggered every major rally since 2014 — 630% in 2024 and over 60,000% in 2017. The XRP price has fallen 62% from its July 2025 peak of $3.65, briefly dipping as low as $1.11 in early February, and currently trades around $1.35 after five consecutive red months of selling — pushing the token back onto the lower support line near $1.10 that has held as structural support for over a decade.
It’s also the first time XRP has retested this level with $1.24 billion in spot ETF inflows behind it. March has historically delivered XRP an average 18% return over the past 12 years, making it statistically the strongest month of Q1. With institutional capital, historical seasonality, and a proven trendline all converging at once, the question facing XRP holders is whether March could spark the reversal that resets the year.
XRP has traded inside a rising channel since 2013, bouncing between an upper resistance line that caps rallies and a lower support line that marks major bottoms. The lower line is the one that matters here — every time XRP has fallen to it, a massive rally followed.
In March 2017, XRP tagged it at $0.0055 and surged 7,150% to $0.3988 by May. Six months of consolidation followed before the final wave pushed price to $3.31 by January 2018 — a 60,081% gain from the original touch. In November 2024, XRP bottomed near $0.50 on the same line and rallied 630% to $3.65 by July 2025.
The lower support line now projects near $1.10. XRP dipped to $1.11 in early February before stabilizing around $1.35 — sitting directly on the same level that preceded both prior rallies. Every touch over the past decade has led to at least a 630% move, but this is the first one happening inside an $85 billion market cap with institutional ETFs, geopolitical headwinds, and a very different macro backdrop.
The current touch shares one thing with both prior ones: extended selling before price reached the support line. Five consecutive red monthly candles have pushed the funding rate to a 10-month low, and most XRP holders are now sitting on unrealized losses — a condition that has historically lasted about a month before price reversed.
XRP is also forming a double bottom around $1.30-$1.35 after testing that level twice, with $1.50 as the neckline. A confirmed break above it could target $1.68-$1.70, and the price could surge further from there on.
No previous trendline touch had ETF infrastructure behind it. Since launching in November 2025, U.S. spot XRP ETFs have pulled in $1.24 billion in cumulative inflows across four consecutive positive months. Around 797 million XRP now sits locked in ETF custody, and institutional wallets accumulated another 170 million XRP during the most recent 9% decline. Ripple also re-locked 700 million XRP to escrow on March 1, keeping its usual release cycle from adding sell pressure.
The other side of this retest is harder to ignore. Whales have sent 3.8 billion XRP to Binance since January in a steady, gradual climb. On March 2, 470 million XRP ($652 million) hit the exchange as the US-Iran military escalation rattled risk assets across the board. Bitcoin dropped below $64,000 on March 1, BNB flipped XRP for fourth place by market cap after a $7.7 billion weekly outflow, and the Fear & Greed Index has now spent 22 consecutive days below 25.
The mixed signal is what makes this retest unusual. Even as whale inflows to Binance rise, the exchange supply ratio has actually declined from 0.027 to 0.025 over the past ten days — meaning roughly 200 million XRP left the exchange during that same window. The 90-day whale outflow average has also improved from -33.5 million to -3.29 million XRP since December.
Some large holders appear to be positioning for a sell, while others are quietly accumulating. Which group gets it right could determine whether this trendline holds or breaks for the first time in over a decade.
On the downside, $1.27 is the first level to watch. It aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and has acted as the bear market support floor through this correction. Below that, $1.10-$1.11 is where the long-term ascending trendline sits — the same level XRP bounced from in February. A decisive break below $1.10 would mark the first time this channel has failed since 2015, opening the door to $0.85-$1.00.
On the upside, $1.47 is the nearest Fibonacci resistance, followed by $1.50 — the double-bottom neckline. A sustained close above $1.50 would confirm the double bottom and target $1.68-$1.70. Beyond that, on-chain data shows approximately 1.85 billion XRP accumulated in the $1.76-$1.80 range, which means holders who bought there could sell to break even, creating heavy resistance. The major supply zone sits at $2.40-$2.60 — a weekly close above that level would invalidate the descending trend entirely.
Over the past 12 years, XRP has averaged an 18% return in March, making it the strongest performing month of Q1. The current Q1 is tracking at -24%, the worst since 2022. If historical patterns hold, a reversal from these levels would be consistent with how XRP has behaved in prior years — though the US-Iran military escalation, rising oil prices, and a hawkish incoming Fed chair have created a risk environment that no previous March rally had to navigate.
Below are three XRP price prediction scenarios for 2026 based on how this trendline retest resolves.
If the trendline holds and XRP breaks above the $1.50 neckline with volume, the setup mirrors both prior touches that led to rallies of at least 630%. ETF inflows accelerating past $2 billion would tighten an already shrinking exchange supply, and Bitcoin stabilizing above $70,000 would give altcoins room to run. With March seasonality historically delivering 18% returns and capitulation signals flashing, XRP could reach $2.50-$4.00 by late 2026.
The trendline holding without a clear breakout catalyst could keep the XRP price in the $1.30-$2.00 range through Q2 2026. ETF flows stay steady but not aggressive enough to shift the supply picture. The $1.50 resistance caps rallies while $1.10 holds as the floor. This is the grind-it-out scenario — the infrastructure keeps building underneath, but macro uncertainty and whale distribution keep explosive moves in check until conditions clear.
A decisive break below $1.10 would be the first structural failure of this channel since 2015. Bitcoin dropping below $60,000, sustained ETF outflows beginning, and whale distribution accelerating from the current 3.8 billion XRP pace could all push that break. A close below $1.10 could send XRP toward $0.85-$1.00, and the decade-long pattern that defined every major rally would need to rebuild from scratch.
The two price points that matter most this March are $1.10 and $1.50. A weekly close below $1.10 would break the ascending channel for the first time in over a decade and invalidate the pattern that preceded every major XRP rally since 2014. A confirmed break above $1.50 would validate the double bottom and open the path toward $1.70 and beyond.
Until one of those levels gives way, XRP sits in a compression zone where the trendline, ETF flows, whale activity, and macro pressure are all pulling in different directions. March has historically been the month where XRP makes its move — this year, the stakes on both sides are higher than they’ve ever been.
