Certain market commentaries suggest the most recent Bitcoin bull cycle was not complete, fueling speculation that a full bullish phase is imminent.
The latest Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle has left many proponents uneasy. While BTC rallied to a new all-time high of $126,200 last year, broader economic conditions never fully aligned with those of past cycles at their strongest. That disconnect is forcing a rethink of whether the last few years truly qualified as a complete bull run.
Prominent market analyst Plan C noted that calling the just-concluded bullish phase a “quasi bull market” is accurate. Bitcoin failed to record the massive expansion seen in previous periods, with most altcoins suffering even more. Citing this, he claimed that the full Bitcoin bull cycle has not yet happened.
One macro signal fueling this sentiment is the Purchasing Managers’ Index, which tracks the performance of the manufacturing sector. A PMI reading below 50 usually reflects contraction across production and services, an environment that tends to limit liquidity and risk appetite.
Historically, Bitcoin has not experienced a full, extended bull phase while that indicator stayed below 50 the entire time. In earlier cycles, its massive increases coincided with improving economic activity and a bullish phase in the crypto market. This time, however, the bull cycle unfolded while those conditions remained low.
From a price perspective, Bitcoin clearly surged. It reached new highs, sentiment turned optimistic, and select altcoins broke previous cycle highs. Yet the broader economy never gave the same support seen in previous cycles. Business activity stayed muted, and monetary conditions were tighter, suppressing liquidity.
Because of that mismatch, Plan C described it as a partial run rather than a classic, full-bodied cycle. The idea is that prices climbed largely on narrative and speculation while the underlying macro foundation remained fragile. In other words, the chart looked strong, but the environment behind it did not fully cooperate.
For one, that difference matters. When rallies occur without strong economic support, they often lack durability and can unwind faster than expected. Again, this suggests that the market may not have completed its cycle.
If the recent period was only a partial expansion, the correction that follows could also be less severe than the crushing bear markets of the past. Plan C expects a shorter pullback with smaller declines.
At the same time, an improving business cycle could set the stage for something larger still ahead. If liquidity conditions ease and economic activity strengthens, Bitcoin may finally align with the macro setup that has historically supported its strongest growth. In that scenario, the past few years would look more like a prelude before the full bull cycle starts.
Interestingly, several market analysts have shared this sentiment, one of whom is VanEck’s CEO, Jan van Eck. He recently noted that BTC is forming a bottom as it shows signs of life despite macro pressure. Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood also argued that the premier crypto asset would have a shallow bear market, as it failed to post its usual explosive price action.
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