In-depth Analysis and Trading Strategy
1. Fundamental Factor Analysis
Geopolitics (Negative for Gold):
Event: There are signs of progress in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia, the United States, and Ukraine all expressing a willingness to engage in dialogue.
Impact: Geopolitical tensions are a key factor supporting safe-haven demand for gold. A easing of tensions will weaken market risk aversion, leading to capital outflows from safe-haven assets like gold, exerting downward pressure on gold prices. This is the main bearish factor suppressing gold prices in the near term.
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy (Core Focus, Potentially Bullish):
Expectations: The market is currently highly confident that the Fed will cut interest rates in September and expects a second rate cut this year.
2. Technical Analysis
Current Status: Bullish and bearish oscillation, with unclear direction. Today’s rebound temporarily alleviates the risk of an imminent break below the 100-day moving average (~$2,301), but does not reverse the trend.
Key Levels:
Support: $3310-3315 (short-term support zone), $3301 (100-day moving average, lifeline). A break below this level opens up downside potential, targeting the $3270-3265 range.
Resistance: $3358-3365 (previous resistance level and key rebound test point). A break above this area will ease downward pressure and potentially trigger a push towards higher resistance levels.
Technical Indicators:
RSI: Recovering from oversold territory, but still failing to break through the 50-day moving average. Its strength remains to be seen.
MACD: The downward momentum bar is shrinking, indicating weakening bearish momentum, but both lines remain below the zero axis, failing to form a golden cross buy signal. The overall technical side is weak but there is demand for rebound and repair.
Comprehensive Trading Recommendations
Based on the above analysis, caution and short-term trading are recommended, with a focus on breakout opportunities presented by Powell’s speech on Friday.
Day Traders:
Short Opportunities: When approaching the $3358-3365 resistance range, if there is a weak upward trend or a candlestick reversal signal (such as a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern or a pin bar pattern), try a small short position with a stop-loss above $3370, targeting the $3320-3315 area.
Long Opportunities: When the price falls back to the $3310-3315 support range, if there are signs of stabilization, try a small short position with a stop-loss below $3300, targeting the $3340-3350 area.
Trend Traders:
We recommend a wait-and-see approach, waiting for the market to determine its direction. The best trading opportunity is to wait for the follow through after the breakout.
Downward Breakout: If gold price breaks below $3300 (the 100-day moving average), consider shorting the market with a target of $3270-3265.
Upward Breakout: If gold breaks out strongly and holds above $3,365, consider buying, targeting $3,380-3,400.
Risk Warning:
All trading strategies must strictly set stop-loss orders. Market volatility will increase sharply around Powell’s speech this Friday, and gaps may occur. Please pay attention to position management and avoid over-investing.
