Key resistance levels at $3,986 and $4,281 remain crucial for confirming a full Ethereum price reversal and sustained rally.
Ethereum (ETH) is once again teasing a turnaround. Over the past month, the Ethereum price has slipped about 1.9%, but the past seven days show a mild 2.1% rebound, as traders attempt to recover lost ground.
Still, the broader tone remains slightly negative. Previous bounces failed to extend into full rallies, repeatedly capped at key technical levels. Now, with on-chain data shifting again, another rebound is forming — and this one looks more convincing.
The Spent Coins Age Band, a metric that tracks how much ETH moves across wallets of all ages, has dropped from 346,000 ETH on October 22 to just 42,100 ETH on October 25 — an 88% decline in movement.
That means coins are staying put rather than circulating — a strong signal that dormant holdings are rising and holders are showing renewed conviction. Both short and long-term investors appear to be waiting for higher prices before rotating their assets.
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Spent Coins Age Band shows total ETH moved across age bands. When it drops, fewer coins are leaving wallets, signaling higher dormancy — often a bullish sign.
At the same time, whale addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH have increased their combined holdings. Over the past 24 hours, they have raised their stash from 100.41 million to 100.56 million ETH. That’s a net gain of 150,000 ETH, worth around $588 million at current ETH prices.
This mix of rising dormancy and fresh whale accumulation creates a stronger base for Ethereum. Historically, when large holders buy while fewer coins move on-chain, the price tends to stabilize and prepare for the next major leg upward.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) — an indicator that measures the balance between buying and selling pressure — continues to flash signs that Ethereum’s downtrend may be losing strength.
Between September 25 and October 22, the RSI made higher lows while the price made lower lows, forming a bullish divergence that often signals a potential reversal. Similar divergences appeared on October 10 and October 17, both of which led to short-lived bounces.
This time, however, the supporting on-chain data looks stronger, suggesting the setup could finally evolve into something larger.
Despite improving technicals, the Ethereum price remains trapped below critical resistance zones that have repeatedly capped every bounce. The 0.382 Fibonacci level at $3,986 and the 0.618 level at $4,281 have rejected two rally attempts in a row — including those on October 10 and October 17.
To confirm real strength, ETH needs a daily close above $4,281, roughly 9% above current levels. That would mark the first clear shift in market control, possibly setting the stage for targets at $4,491 and $4,954.
If the breakout fails and ETH slips below $3,804, a deeper pullback toward $3,509 could follow. For now, though, the setup looks cleaner than before — whale accumulation, rising dormancy, and a well-defined technical ceiling.
Ethereum’s rebound isn’t guaranteed, but this time, the groundwork beneath it looks stronger than ever.
