It’s not often that US President Donald Trump’s sweeping statements align with unfolding global developments – but this time, he may have stumbled onto the truth. After repeatedly asserting that he could “fix” the India-Pakistan conflict and predicting that India would “buckle” under U.S. pressure for buying Russian oil, new reports suggest Trump might have been right about one thing.
According to a Reuters report, India is expected to scale back its imports of Russian crude, which is a significant move that could reshape the country’s energy strategy.
For months, discounted Russian crude proved irresistible to Indian refiners. But as fresh Western sanctions squeeze Moscow’s energy sector, companies from Reliance Industries to state-run refiners are reassessing their sourcing plans.
The shift follows a new wave of sanctions by the US and its allies targeting major Russian energy firms, including Rosneft and Lukoil, in response to the ongoing war in Ukraine. The UK imposed similar measures last week, while the European Union approved its 19th sanctions package, which includes a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
Global oil markets reacted swiftly to the developments. Brent crude futures rose $1.94, or 3.1 per cent, to $64.53 per barrel by 0428 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed $1.89, or 3.2 per cent, to $60.39 per barrel.
Analysts attributed the surge to concerns over potential supply disruptions. “President Trump’s fresh sanctions hitting Russia’s biggest oil houses aim squarely at choking Kremlin war revenues – a move that could tighten physical flows of Russian barrels and force buyers to re-route volumes onto the open market,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, Senior Market Analyst at Phillip Nova, as quoted by Reuters.
She added that if India scales back Russian oil imports under US pressure, “we could see Asian demand pivot toward US crude, lifting Atlantic prices.”
Reuters reported that India’s state-owned refiners have begun reviewing their crude sourcing to ensure none of their shipments are directly linked to sanctioned Russian producers.
Reliance Industries, one of the largest private importers of Russian oil since 2022, is reportedly aligning its purchase strategy with the government’s evolving policy. Sources told Reuters that the conglomerate plans to “sharply cut” imports amid tightening sanctions.
India’s Russian crude imports had surged over the past two years after Western buyers withdrew, allowing New Delhi to secure deeply discounted barrels. However, with pressure mounting from Washington and Brussels, refiners may now pivot toward suppliers in the Middle East and Africa.
Despite Thursday’s rally in oil prices, analysts remain divided on the sustainability of the trend.
“The new sanctions are certainly upping the ante between the US and Russia, but I see the oil price jump more like a knee-jerk reaction rather than a structural shift,” said Claudio Galimberti, Global Market Analysis Director at Rystad Energy, according to Reuters.
He added that previous sanctions had failed to meaningfully dent Russia’s oil production or revenues. “So far, almost all the sanctions against Russia for the past three and a half years have mostly failed to dent either the volumes produced by the country or the oil revenues,” Galimberti noted, pointing out that Indian and Chinese refiners continue to purchase Russian crude despite restrictions.
In the short term, traders are closely watching three key factors likely to steer oil prices — OPEC+ production levels, China’s stockpiling activity, and developments in Ukraine and the Middle East.
