Taiwan’s opposition will keep its legislative majority in a blow to President Lai Ching-te’s Democratic Progressive Party, with voters overwhelmingly rejecting an attempt to recall 24 Kuomintang lawmakers.
Voters in every targeted constituency rebuffed the recall effort, according to Central Election Commission data as of 8:45 p.m., with the KMT and its allies retaining their combined legislative majority. The DPP said it will learn from the result.
The recall election was unprecedented in scale, targeting almost a quarter of lawmakers, and was started by civil groups who claimed the KMT was working with China and jeopardizing national security, which it denies. The failed recall campaign could mean further bitter battles over everything from the budget and defense to the appointment of judges.
“Saturday’s outcome shows that more Taiwanese people are still in favor of maintaining the current power balance in Taiwan politics, where the opposition parties hold a majority in the legislature and the ruling party controls the executive branch of the government,” said William Yang, senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the Crisis Group.
The DPP will review the results and strive to respond to the public, Secretary-General Lin Yu-chang said in a briefing in Taipei, though he repeated claims that Beijing has been interfering in Taiwan affairs, including before the vote.
“This unprecedented civic movement was motivated by anti-communism and the need to protect Taiwan,” Lin said.
In a post on his Facebook account, Lai urged everyone to respect the result of the recall election and to unite in the spirit of democracy after competition.
If 12 KMT lawmakers had been recalled, the DPP would have secured a majority in the legislature, at least until by-elections could be held. The KMT zeroed in on voter concerns that the recall effort would upend the results of elections in January 2024, when Lai’s DPP lost control of the chamber.
“We all know that no one should overturn the table and demand a new election just because they lost,” KMT Chairman Eric Chu said at a briefing on Saturday evening. “You can’t lose an election and then launch a massive recall. You can’t seek one-party dominance at the cost of undermining democracy.”
The KMT, which favors closer ties with Beijing, ruled Taiwan for decades as a one-party state, until the island became a democracy.
The party may have benefited from recent legislation pushing cash handouts, and pay hikes or better benefits for the groups like the military and police, said Su Tzu-chiao, professor from the Department of Political Science of Soochow University in Taipei.
“Although the DPP suffered a setback in the recall vote, the KMT cannot necessarily feel relieved, as public support for the recall effort remains strong and vocal,” Su said. “Dissatisfaction with the opposition also persists, retaining significant potential for mobilization.”
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While the DPP didn’t instigate the recall, it lent public support, and Lai recently embarked on a series of speeches across the island warning of the threat from Beijing. China strongly condemned his remarks.
Crisis Group’s Yang and other analysts said the DPP can not just focus on public fears of China to galvanize voters.
“The DPP must recognize that it cannot rely on anti-China messaging in every election, as voters may be more concerned with economic and livelihood issues,” said Chang Chun-hao, a professor from the Department of Political Science of Tunghai University.
While the economy grew 5.48% in the first quarter, much of that was driven by artificial intelligence-related demand for high-end semiconductors, and many people are concerned at the price of housing and everyday goods. The government has also trimmed its forecast for full-year growth.
While the two main parties remain bitterly divided, the election was orderly and peaceful, underscoring Taiwan’s status as the only predominantly Chinese-speaking society that enjoys democracy. More than half the eligible 6.8 million voters cast ballots.
The only non-legislative recall attempt, against the suspended mayor of Hsinchu, also failed.
“Today’s result should not be misconstrued as a signal on cross-Strait or foreign policy, nor should it be interpreted through the lens of ‘pro-China’ or ‘pro-Taiwan’ alignment,” the KMT’s international affairs department said in a statement. “Rather, it reflects the strength and vitality of Taiwan’s democratic accountability mechanisms.”
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(With assistance from Miaojung Lin, Adrian Kennedy and Philip Glamann.)
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