Market uncertainty grows as China withholds quota details, while demand is expected to rise faster than output.
Prices of two key rare earths used in high-strength magnets have jumped to the highest point in 2 years after US-based miner MP Materials halted exports of raw materials to China, the world’s top magnet maker. The move tightened supplies amid rising demand, lifting prices.
China controls most of the rare earth supply chain, with about 90% of the refining capacity and roughly 70% of the mining output. Washington has tried to shift that balance. In July, the U.S. signed a deal with MP Materials, its largest producer, to process the company’s output at home rather than send it abroad.
For the past 3 years, MP’s shipments supplied an estimated 7%-9% of China’s NdPr oxide production, according to consultancy Adamas. Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) is essential for magnets used in electric cars, military gear, and wind turbines. “MP’s shipments were a very material portion of NdPr oxide supply for China’s factories, so that’s left a big void,” said Ryan Castilloux from Adamas.
Rare earth NdPr prices climbed in July
Benchmark Chinese prices for NdPr oxide have climbed to 632,000 yuan per metric ton, or about $88 per kg, up from $63 in July. The roughly 40% rise, after a long stretch of weakness, is improving the outlook for mine projects outside China as Western nations look to cut reliance on Beijing.
The push to lift output in the U.S. and Europe gained urgency after China tightened exports in April during a wider trade dispute, a move that forced some auto plants to shut. Last month, the U.S. government finalized a deal with MP that requires the company to stop shipping to China. The agreement also includes price support for MP’s NdPr at a reference of $110 per kg, about twice China’s price at that time.
MP had already paused exports to China in April because of high tariffs. Analysts say any shortfall was masked by weaker magnet demand while Chinese curbs were in place. U.S. rare earth ore shipments to China fell in May and dropped to zero in June before rebounding last month, likely reflecting MP’s final cargoes, they added.
China’s rare earth magnet exports picked up again, reaching a six-month high in July, as reported by Cryptopolitan earlier. That improvement followed a series of agreements with the EU and the US.
NdPr prices got dragged down in the last few years
Neodymium-Praseodymium prices had been dragged down due to oversupply in the last few years and fell to 345,000 yuan in March last year, the lowest since November 2020. The latest gains also reflect firmer demand.
“China is currently in its peak manufacturing season for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and consumer electronics. This cyclical uptick in demand has put additional pressure on available NdPr supply,” said Neha Mukherjee, research manager for rare earths at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
Another source of support is uncertainty over China’s mining and smelting quotas. This year’s quotas were issued without the usual public statement, creating questions in the market. Castilloux said some participants may be bracing for lower limits. He expects Chinese output to edge up by about 5% this year, while demand grows around 10%.
How long the rally lasts will depend in part on whether magnet makers can absorb higher feedstock costs, said Ellie Saklatvala, head of metal pricing at Argus.
“Producers of NdPr products are relieved to now see prices lift away from loss-making territory – it’ll be a question for buyers such as magnet makers whether their margins are healthy enough to keep paying those higher prices for feedstock,” she said.
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