06.08.2025 / 12:00 CET/CEST Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News – a service of EQS Group. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Reason for the research: Research Comment Recommendation: BUY Target price: 16.00 EUR Target price on sight of: 31.12.2026 Last rating change: Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann
Analysis Prime weighs on revenue and earnings; forecast and price target lowered, BUY rating confirmed
Although CENIT AG increased its revenue by 4.4% to EUR103.71 million in the first half of 2025 (previous year: EUR93.36 million), this performance fell significantly short of our expectations and those of CENIT’s management. The increase in revenue was exclusively attributable to the revenues of the US company Analysis Prime, which was acquired in July 2024 and was included in the figures for the first half of the year for the first time. According to our calculations, these revenues are likely to have amounted to slightly more than EUR6 million. According to former estimates, Analysis Prime should generate sales of around EUR25 million in the 2025 financial year. However, in view of the sales achieved in the first half of the year, this forecast is clearly too optimistic. Restructuring measures are currently underway at this subsidiary, particularly at management level. At the same time, the continuing difficult market environment in Europe is making itself felt. The German automotive industry, in particular, which is an important customer sector for the company, is affected by a decline in business volume, with the result that CENIT AG had to accept an organic decline in revenue of around 2%.
Despite the increase in revenue, EBIT deteriorated to EUR-3.69 million (previous year: EUR2.01 million). In the first half of 2025, special expenses of around EUR3.8 million were incurred in connection with the implementation of the ‘Project Performance’ restructuring programme. This programme aims to reduce the number of employees by around 50. Although this has resulted in cost improvements, significant positive effects are not expected to become apparent until the coming financial year. In addition to the special expenses, Analysis Prime reported a negative EBIT of EUR1.6 million in the first half of 2025, which also had a negative impact on the Group’s results.
Despite the negative operating result, operating cash flow was once again clearly positive at EUR9.99 million (previous year: EUR11.15 million). Advance payments received contributed significantly to this, meaning that CENIT AG remains in a very comfortable position with cash and cash equivalents of EUR20.59 million as of 30 June 2025.
Due to the below-expectations performance of Analysis Prime and the continuing difficult market situation, CENIT’s management has significantly adjusted its forecast. Revenue of at least EUR205 million and EBIT of at least EUR-1.5 million are now expected. Previously, revenue of EUR229 million to EUR234 million and EBIT of EUR6.8 million to EUR7.3 million had been expected. The main reason for this reduction in the forecast is Analysis Prime, for which sales of around EUR15 million are currently planned, a significant adjustment compared to the previous expectation of around EUR25 million. In addition, the weak market situation in Europe is causing customers to remain cautious.
We are guided by the new forecast and expect revenue of EUR208.95 million and EBIT of EUR-0.28 million. For the second half of 2025, this means a return to positive EBIT. This is primarily a result of the virtual elimination of special expenses, which amounted to EUR3.8 million in the first half of the year. The elimination of these expenses in the coming financial year and the resulting positive effects of approximately EUR5 million should have a significant positive impact on EBIT in the coming financial year. Due to the now lower revenue base, we have reduced our revenue forecasts for 2026 to EUR221.35 million (previously: EUR242.22 million). However, we expect a noticeable improvement in EBIT to EUR11.21 million (previously: EUR13.40 million). The same applies to the 2027 financial year.
Based on the adjusted DCF valuation model, we have determined a new target price of EUR16.00 (previously: EUR19.00). The reduction in the target price is a consequence of our lower forecasts. We are maintaining our ‘BUY’ rating.
You can download the research here: https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=368ec2c477bd772e575c28d78204faff
Contact for questions: ++++++++++++++++ Disclosure of potential conflicts of interest pursuant to Section 85 WpHG and Art. 20 MAR The company analysed above has the following potential conflict of interest: (5a,6a,7,11); A catalogue of potential conflicts of interest can be found at:
https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm +++++++++++++++ Date and time of completion of the study: 06/08/25 (10:19 am) Date and time of the first dissemination of the study: 06/08/25 (12:00 pm)
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