Few outside of President Trump’s staunchest allies are lining up to support his idea for a tariff dividend in the form of $2,000 checks.
Economists have panned Trump’s logic and pointed out that the proposal would cost hundreds of billions of dollars more than tariffs are projected to bring in annually.
And GOP lawmakers are treading carefully after Republicans passed the budget-busting One Big Beautiful Bill earlier this year, with many wary of adding another wave of red ink.
But even as the hurdles are high, Trump’s record of getting his pet ideas enacted is leading few to dismiss the talk entirely.
Read more: What Trump’s tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
After all, it was Trump who signed the first COVID-era stimulus checks into law (and reveled in the fact that they had his name affixed to them). More recently, his 2024 campaign trail ideas, like no taxes on tips and overtime, were seen as fantastical at the time but are now the law of the land.
Another factor suggesting that a real push could be in the offing is Trump and his party’s ongoing challenges around affordability issues, with the president often mentioning checks as an effort that he is undertaking in part to improve Americans’ views of his economy.
Terry Haines, the founder of Pangaea Policy, even called rebate checks “very likely” this week in a note to clients. He pointed out that the idea could be included in an upcoming reconciliation bill on Capitol Hill, which can be passed with only Republican votes.
Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump’s tariffs
“Trump keeps talking about it with increasing specificity, and Trump and congressional Rs have the legislative means to get it done, so markets today should consider it real,” he wrote.
Others are more skeptical. One way this issue could ultimately play out instead: a renewed focus on previous and possibly new tax cuts instead of checks.
This idea has notably been mentioned by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, even as Trump has gotten more and more detailed about dividend checks, even laying out a timeline this week.
“We’re going to be issuing dividends later on, probably in the middle of next year or a little bit later, of thousands of dollars for individuals of moderate and middle income,” he told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday, adding that on top of that, “We’re going to pay down debt.”
Trump’s pitch is one that economists have found plenty of reasons to object to.
