Bitcoin faces the risk of falling below a key support level as US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to struggle following the recent crypto market downturn, analysts at Bitfinex report.
“The absence of institutional buying has made the $107,000–$108,000 range increasingly hard to hold as support,” Bitfinex analysts noted in their Tuesday report, highlighting significant net outflows after US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement earlier this month.
From October 13 to 17, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.23 billion in net outflows, according to Farside.
Bitfinex analysts noted that the data “highlights the current lack of meaningful dip-buying from institutional investors.”
This week has seen outflows on two of the three trading days; however, strong inflows on Tuesday have kept overall net flows positive at $335.4 million so far.
Bitcoin ETF performance mirrors broader markets
Bitcoin is trading at $108,864 at the time of writing, according to CoinMarketCap, after briefly climbing above $113,000 earlier in the week before quickly dropping back below $110,000.
Bitfinex analysts said Bitcoin’s price is now at a critical level that could “serve as a key warning signal” for a more prolonged consolidation if it falls further. They added that this scenario may unfold if ETF inflows do not remain strong. “If weakness persists or ETF inflows fail to recover meaningfully in the coming weeks, it would signal growing demand-side fragility,” the analysts explained.
“Such a scenario could undermine one of the primary forces behind previous rallies —consistent institutional accumulation, heightening the risk of a more prolonged consolidation phase.”
However, market sentiment remains generally bullish, with figures like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and BitMine chairman Tom Lee still forecasting that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by year-end.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz tempered these expectations on Tuesday, noting that a number of “crazy” developments would need to occur for such a surge to materialize.
Even in a worst-case scenario, Novogratz added, Bitcoin is expected to remain above $100,000 this year.
