Increased gold volatility makes Bitcoin appealing for risk-return assessments.
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The research team at the banking giant JPMorgan, under the leadership of Research Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, has set a new price target for Bitcoin $0.055562 at $170,000 over the next six to twelve months. This target was reported by The Block on November 6, during a period when Bitcoin was trading around $103,000. The forecast is based on a volatility-adjusted valuation comparison between Bitcoin and private sector gold investments.
ContentsBitcoin’s Volatility-Based Gold Comparison”Leverage Unwinding Mostly Completed” Bitcoin’s Volatility-Based Gold Comparison
According to JPMorgan’s report, Bitcoin’s current market value stands at approximately $2.1 trillion. For valuation alignment with gold, this number needs a 67% increase. Analysts at the bank pointed out that, compared to the approximately $6.2 trillion of gold holdings in the private sector, Bitcoin is still significantly undervalued. The report stated that Bitcoin is trading below its volatility-adjusted fair value compared to gold, which is $68,000.
The analysts describe this method as a mechanical exercise and highlight that the recent increase in gold prices’ volatility has made Bitcoin more attractive in terms of risk-return. The volatility ratio used in calculations is 1.8, indicating that Bitcoin consumes roughly 1.8 times more risk capital compared to gold.
“Leverage Unwinding Mostly Completed”
The report also assessed that the leverage unwind in the futures market had largely been completed following record liquidations in October. Returning open positions in perpetual futures to historical averages indicates a beginning of market stabilization according to the JPMorgan team.
The research team noted signals of leverage unwinding concluding after the second wave of liquidations on November 3. During this time, the Balancer hack, which undermined investor confidence with a $120 million impact, drew attention. Additionally, it was noted that Ethereum $0.000022 positions in CME futures were subject to more liquidations compared to Bitcoin. In contrast to the strong inflows in early October, there have been limited exits from ETFs in recent weeks.
The new target of $170,000 for Bitcoin updates JPMorgan’s previous projections of $165,000 in October and $126,000 in August. The bank adds that, based on volatility-adjusted evaluations, Bitcoin still has a strong upward potential.
According to CryptoAppsy data, Bitcoin was trading down 1.47% in the last 24 hours, priced at $101,892.
You can follow our news on Telegram, Facebook, Twitter & Coinmarketcap Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
