Bitcoin is showing early signs of strength as it attempts to reclaim the $115,000 level. After weeks of mixed sentiment and heavy selling pressure, momentum appears to be turning slightly bullish. The recent weekly close above $114,500 has confirmed a reclaim of the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, a key on-chain threshold currently sitting near $113,000. This metric represents the average cost basis of recent market participants and often serves as a pivotal line separating bullish from bearish sentiment.
Top analyst Darkfost shared that this reclaim is an encouraging signal, reflecting renewed buyer confidence after a volatile October. However, he also cautioned that Bitcoin’s position must still be monitored closely. A rejection at current levels could lead to a renewed correction phase, mirroring the pattern seen in 2024, when BTC faced multiple failed attempts before regaining upward momentum.
For now, the market sits at a delicate crossroads — consolidating below resistance while holding critical on-chain support. If Bitcoin can sustain this structure and push convincingly above $115K, analysts believe it could open the door for a broader bullish continuation and potentially a retest of the $120K region in the weeks ahead.
According to top analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin’s reclaim of the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price around $113,000 could mark a crucial turning point for market structure. He notes that during the 2024 correction, BTC faced four failed attempts to break above this same metric. Each rejection was driven by short-term holders selling at their break-even points — a typical psychological reaction that delays trend reversals. Once Bitcoin finally sustained above the STH Realized Price, however, the market quickly regained momentum and entered a new expansion phase.
This time, the dynamic appears similar. If Bitcoin successfully consolidates above this zone, it could pave the way for a strong bullish impulse and potentially a new all-time high (ATH) in the short term. The STH Realized Price acts as a measure of conviction among recent investors; holding above it suggests growing confidence and a shift from capitulation to accumulation.
Darkfost also highlights another critical observation: throughout the current bull cycle, Bitcoin has never fallen below the yearly STH Realized Price. Each time the price neared that level, a rebound followed — reaffirming it as a structural support for the broader trend.
Still, caution remains essential. A breakdown below the $94,000 mark — the current yearly STH Realized Price — would likely signal a deeper market shift. Such a move could mark the transition from a mid-cycle correction into a more prolonged bearish phase.
For now, the data suggests resilience, not weakness. As long as BTC remains above its short-term realized threshold, the broader uptrend remains intact — with potential for the next major rally if buying pressure continues to build above $115K.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $114,360, consolidating after a brief rally that tested resistance near $115,800-$117,500. The chart shows that BTC successfully reclaimed the 200-period moving average (red line) on the 4-hour timeframe, a level that had acted as resistance throughout mid-October. This reclaim is an encouraging short-term signal, but momentum appears to be slowing as traders await the next catalyst.
The $113,000-$114,000 range now serves as immediate support — aligning with the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, a key on-chain level that reflects the cost basis of recent buyers. Holding this zone could allow bulls to consolidate strength before another attempt at breaking above $117,500, the main horizontal resistance that capped previous rallies.
On the downside, failure to maintain above the 200-MA could trigger a retest of $111,000, where the 100-MA (green line) provides secondary support. Trading volume remains subdued, reflecting investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later this week.
Bitcoin remains in a constructive phase as long as it holds above $113K. Sustained consolidation above this level would reinforce bullish structure — while a decisive break above $117,500 could open the path toward $120,000+ in the short term.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
