Perhaps not. The person receiving a payment instrument shouldn’t have to worry about what it’s really worth. An influential 2021 paper called it the “No questions asked,” or NQA, property of money. Unless it is counterfeit, fiat currency is NQA. As are insured bank deposits. But even regulated dollar stablecoins won’t be insured, nor will their issuers have access to the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending facility. If a lot of people rush to redeem their tokens, the speed at which issuers can sell assets to meet the selling pressure will decide if the loss of confidence becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Since the coins will be backed by short-term, liquid securities, panic could spread to the US Treasury market.
Fiat currencies and bank deposits are widely trusted. Both can be tokenized and programmed with algorithms. The Trump administration has ruled out the first option: The Fed won’t offer a central bank digital currency. However, China’s e-CNY and Europe’s digital euro — expected by 2029 — will keep the CBDC project alive. Meanwhile, banks are worried that stablecoins will pay interest through the back door. To prevent customers from leaving, they want to give them the option of tokenized deposits. While stablecoins will change hands on public blockchains like Ethereum and Solana, CBDCs and deposit tokens are more likely to exist in closed networks. Banks want this restricted-access system to prevail because it lowers money-laundering risks and tracks close to their world, where one intermediary’s claim on another is settled with central bank reserves.
There may not be one winner of hearts and minds. The goal of tokenization is to exploit the efficiencies of distributed ledgers. Messaging and settlement will fold into one action, reducing expenses and risk. So-called smart contracts — software embedded in coins — can put conditions around when a payment is triggered and to whom. In cross-border transfers, stablecoins could come up ahead by avoiding costly remittance fees. Dollar coins might help preserve citizens’ purchasing power in high-inflation countries. Where runaway prices are not a problem, CBDCs and deposit tokens could serve the market together. With smart contracts built into CBDCs, a cash subsidy like food stamps won’t require a separate card infrastructure to prevent spending on tobacco or alcohol. China can use e-CNY to spur much-needed consumption.
Crypto firms, banks, and governments will all try to fill the existing gaps. A CBDC like the digital euro will offer resilience: During internet shutdowns, people will buy bread by simply holding their phone close to the baker’s. Where access to the banking system is limited, a state-sponsored stablecoin may be the answer. Marshall Islands’ government is planning to distribute welfare payments in USDM1, a token backed by US Treasuries. The private sector will also target markets with low banking penetration. Visa corporate cards issued by Reap, a Hong Kong-based fintech, give customers the option to spend in fiat money, but settle in stablecoins. Attention will turn next to filling future gaps. A key theme of Visa Inc. Chief Executive Officer Ryan McInerney’s letter to shareholders is AI agents paying on our behalf.
So much for innovation in payments. Stocks, bonds, funds, and other assets are also ripe for tokenization. Money needs to grow up fast to enable the “Finternet,” where all kinds of tokens are traded on a single unified ledger. Could we be bolder and imagine payment coins to automatically adjust for inflation, putting monetary policy on autopilot, as some analysts have speculated? That’s still an unsettled question.
Ever since Meta Platforms Inc.’s Mark Zuckerberg floated the idea of Libra — a world currency — in 2019, alarm bells have rung loud in Beijing. China has pushed its official e-CNY into circulation and encouraged Hong Kong to develop a regulated market for crypto assets. The Genius Act has come as a fresh challenge because Washington views private-sector dollar coins as an instrument of state power. They will make the world rely more on the US currency, but in a new way. Instead of depending on its reserve status, the greenback will ride a digital network effect — every new user will be attracted to regulated dollar stablecoins because others are lured by them.
To resist the dollar’s assault and preserve monetary sovereignty, China has asked banks to start paying interest on e-CNY holdings in customer wallets from Jan. 1. Amid this superpower rivalry, nations must strive to preserve their unit of account — dollar, euro, yen, or yuan — from becoming a casualty of technological dominance. Zuckerberg’s idea of a world currency was perhaps too premature for the first half of the century. It may not be for the second.
