Markets adapt to US shutdown, using Bitcoin/gold as proxies for missing economic signals.
FBS, a leading global broker, has released a new market analysis highlighting how financial markets are adapting to the ongoing US government shutdown that began in early October 2025. With key economic data, including CPI, NFP, and inflation reports, temporarily frozen, the Federal Reserve is operating without its usual indicators, leaving traders to interpret markets on their own.
According to FBS analysts, this rare information blackout hasn’t removed liquidity, it has only made it invisible. The global M2 liquidity index remains elevated across the US, Europe, Japan, China, and the UK, but it is increasingly disconnected from official policy communication. As a result, investors are turning to Bitcoin, gold, and bond yields as live proxies for the missing economic signals.
“Liquidity hasn’t disappeared — it’s just gone unmeasured,” FBS analysts explain. “With the Fed silent, the market has become its own data feed.”
Bitcoin moves with liquidity, not behind it
FBS data shows that Bitcoin, which historically trailed the global M2 index by several weeks, is now moving in sync with liquidity, a sign that the market has internalized the flow of capital even in the absence of policy guidance.
Following two massive liquidation events totaling over $24 billion, one of which was the largest single-session liquidation in crypto history, Bitcoin has reset its leverage structure and now stands at a decisive point. FBS identifies $102 000 as the key decisive level — the point that could determine whether Bitcoin extends its bull cycle or enters a new corrective phase.
Stagflation risks and institutional reaction
With inflation remaining high and growth slowing, stagflation fears are resurfacing. Several Fed officials, including Neel Kashkari and Mary Daly, have warned that prices are rising for the wrong reasons — primarily supply issues rather than demand. In this uncertain policy environment, investors are seeking alternatives like gold and Bitcoin as hedges against fiat instability.
Ethereum’s critical retest
FBS analysts also highlight Ethereum’s technical setup. After breaking below its long-term upward trendline, ETH is now retesting that level from below — a pivotal moment that could determine whether the move was a temporary shakeout or the start of a deeper decline. The next major liquidity zone lies near $3200-$3400, while reclaiming $4300-$4500 would signal renewed strength.
A market that moves first
FBS concludes that the fourth quarter of 2025 has become a test of the market’s independence. Even without policy direction, liquidity continues to shape prices, proving that the market no longer waits for the Fed; it moves first, and the data follows. Users can read the full analysis here. Disclaimer: This material does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations. It is provided for informational purposes only.
About FBS
FBS https://fbs.com/ is a global brand that unites several independent brokerage companies under the licenses of FSC (Belize), CySEC (Cyprus), and ASIC (Australia). With 16 years of experience and over 100 international awards, FBS is steadily developing as one of the market’s most trusted brokers. Today, FBS serves over 27 000 000 traders and more than 700 000 partners around the globe.
