and concluded “…the monthly RSI5 has now dropped below 30. As with the daily RSI30, history shows that this has produced low-risk, high-reward setups ($700 vs. $4000) for those with a longer-term perspective and/or those willing to Dollar-Cost Average (DCA).”
Fast forward to today. Ether dropped to the $1800s yesterday and the $1700s early February, but has held the lower trend line. Thus, one would already be profitable based on a DCA strategy. Meanwhile, its monthly RSI30 remains below 30, while it has essentially consolidated since 2021, forming a protracted Bull Flag targeting >$6000 on a breakout. See Figure 1 below.
Figure 1: Ethereum’s monthly price action since July 2015.
Meanwhile, the short-term price action and associated EW analyses show that we can count Ethereum’s decline from its August 2025 high as a complete (green) a-b-c, subdivided into a (gray) abc-abc-i, ii, iii, iv, v decline. See Figure 2 below. Besides, its daily RSI14 recently dipped into the “low risk buy zone,” as did the aforementioned monthly RSI5, while exhibiting positive divergence (black dotted arrow). Also, the MACD and Money Flow exhibit such divergence.
Besides, the daily MACD has crossed the “good risk-reward level” at -200 again, as history shows, a reliable short- to intermediate-term trade trigger. These divergences indicate that downside momentum and selling pressure are waning, while upside momentum and buying pressure are increasing. Although these are conditions, not trade triggers, they add weight to the evidence that an important low is in place.
Combined with our preferred wave count for ETH, this suggests that, short- to long-term, it has likely bottomed out, contingent on holding above the warning levels for the Bulls set at 1746, 1803, 1846, 1928, and 1995. Now we need to see a break above the gray W-i/a high at $2150 to target $2470, ideally. Once reached, the market can then decide to provide us with five gray waves up or only three. The former means an important low is in. The latter means one lower low to come before we look higher again. But for now, and regardless, we prefer to look for (much) higher prices.
