Cardano has shown a strong correlation with a key economic metric, and historical indicators point to a possible price expansion.
This development comes as Cardano fails to replicate the recent recovery demonstrated by Bitcoin. While the crypto leader surged past $73,000 to a 1-month high, ADA increased slightly but failed to engulf the previous day’s candle, signaling that bears are still in charge.
Still, a key macro indicator suggests a bullish phase is coming for the 10th largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
Key Points
* The Cardano monthly chart has shown a notable correlation with the manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI).
* The PMI/business cycle has remained compressed for years, and this has reflected on ADA’s performance.
* Recently, the PMI is starting to turn bullish as recent ISM data shows that the metric now stands at 52.4%, up for the third time in 40 months.
* If this plays out to its full course, then history suggests there is plenty to be bullish about Cardano.
* The current ADA trend closely resembles the 2019 correction, in which it posted red candles in six of seven months, QT ended, and the PMI expanded.
Cardano and the PMI
Market veteran Dan Gambardello analyzed the Cardano monthly chart in his recent post, identifying a notable correlation with its trend and the manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI). For the uninitiated, this metric shows the health of the production and supplies sector.
An accompanying chart shows that this macro indicator has closely dictated the trend of altcoins like Cardano. Periods of compression have seen ADA move sideways or consolidate, and an expansion phase has correlated with a bullish phase for the cryptocurrency.
The PMI/business cycle has faced compression for years, and this has reflected on ADA’s performance. For context, Cardano failed to reach 50% of its all-time high during the 2024/2025 bull run, lacking the required momentum to surge considerably.
The broader crypto market also experienced this, as it did not receive the fundamental backing that had spurred earlier explosive price action. This has led some analysts to suggest the just-concluded bullish phase was a “quasi bull market.”
Meanwhile, the PMI is starting to expand, and Gambardello has urged enthusiasts not to sleep on this data point. Recent ISM data shows that the metric now stands at 52.4%, up for the third time in 40 months. If this plays out to its full course, then history suggests there is plenty to be bullish about Cardano.
Where We Are and What Could Happen
In the meantime, ADA remains within bearish territories, amid its sixth consecutive monthly red candle following a bearish close to February. Compared to past events, this is not the first time this has happened for the coin.
While it has shown the same price action as after the September 2021 top at $3.12, where it recorded six red monthly candles, the analyst argues that this is not the case for ADA at the moment. According to him, it closely resembles the 2019 correction, where it posted red candles in six of seven months between June and December that year.
Moreover, fundamentals support this. Gambardello highlighted that quantitative tightening ended during this period, and the business cycle began to expand, ushering in a strong upward phase in Cardano prices to unprecedented levels.
These conditions align with the current market, with quantitative tightening ending in December 2025 and the PMI showing strength. With liquidity expected to flood the global market, history shows that something interesting could be in the pipeline for ADA.
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