Bitcoin is expected to trade between $114K and $120K, with ether holding key support above $3,750.
The crypto market is cooling down in August after two straight months of bullish action driven by institutional money. ETF inflows into both bitcoin and ether dominated headlines in June and July, but that trend is now facing pressure from new economic fears.
According to CNBC, weak U.S. labor numbers and aggressive tariffs rolled out by President Donald Trump, ranging between 10% and 41%, have triggered broader market jitters. The result is a pullback in stocks, a spike in bond demand, and growing expectations that crypto may not be immune this time.
Ether jumped over 49% last month, outpacing bitcoin, which still saw an 8% gain and climbed to a new all-time high in the middle of July.
That performance was fueled by a mix of steady bitcoin ETF inflows, a sudden $5 billion surge into ether funds, and the rise of new crypto treasury firms aggressively accumulating both tokens.
Combined, these factors pushed momentum to its peak. Now, with volatility back in the picture, traders are reassessing exposure, especially in high-risk corners of the market.
ETF dominance fades as traders eye tighter ranges
The macro environment is no longer just background noise. “Bitcoin is caught between ETF-driven optimism and uncertainty around global trade tensions,” said Ray Youssef, CEO of the NoOnes app.
“It remains the risk benchmark, but it may trade in a tighter range unless a new macro catalyst emerges, such as another unexpected rate move or geopolitical shift … I expect August to be relatively muted in terms of price volatility, but deceptively active in terms of positioning.”
Data from the market shows the ETF fuel is still coming in, just at a steadier pace. Bitcoin ETFs brought in around $6 billion last month, bringing their total to $55 billion since launch. Ether ETFs, meanwhile, now sit at $9.64 billion, with July alone accounting for over half that. That sharp spike in ether interest has shifted positioning away from bitcoin toward ETH-focused trades.
The rotation has already shown up in the stock market. Shares of Coinbase rose 27% in the past two months, Galaxy Digital gained 45%, and bitcoin miner Iren surged 76%. Ether’s rise pulled other names with it. Bitmine Immersion, a firm focused on ether treasuries, soared 136%. Circle, tied to stablecoins, jumped more than 400%.
Fed meeting and tariffs stir uncertainty ahead
Investors aren’t running for the exits, but they’re no longer chasing either. “Near term, I think bitcoin stays range-bound unless we get a big macro shift,” said Pauline Shangett, chief strategy officer at ChangeNOW. “ETH has more momentum thanks to ETF demand and whale activity, which could help it hold up better even in a choppy market.”
Those whales are now playing a major role in Ether’s performance, especially around the $3,750 zone. If it holds, there’s a shot at $4,000. Traders are watching $3,200 to $2,900 as key support.
Youssef sees bitcoin trading between $114,000 and $120,000 this month, with solid buying interest showing up if prices fall to $103,000-$109,000. But the big question now is what happens in September. “The real wildcard is the September Fed meeting,” Youssef said.
“[Chair] Jerome Powell’s remarks often create sharp, short-term volatility, and with geopolitical tensions rising, we could see sudden shifts in sentiment. Still, unless macro conditions deteriorate significantly, both BTC and ETH appear to be building momentum beneath the surface.”
That momentum isn’t obvious on the charts, but some technical analysts aren’t waiting for a signal. Read Harvey, an analyst at Wolfe Research, said in a note on Wednesday that his team is staying long. His words were:
“We are taking advantage of this consolidation and playing for this highly compelling setup to reaccelerate and break out … For now, we’re buyers of pullbacks in the space and expect reaccelerations in the coming weeks, a development that should lead to further crypto outperformance vs. equities.”
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