Few outliers (BNB, HYPE, SOL, ZEC, WLFI) outperform; most altcoins trade near multi-year lows while BTC leads the rally.
Altcoin season optimism is building up among crypto market analysts. However, the data tells a different story.
Crypto strategist “Ash Crypto” has argued that incoming Fed rate cuts and a coming “massive liquidity shift” could spark a “parabolic pump” in altcoins.
Bitcoin has already rallied roughly 680% from its Nov. 2022 low, yet altcoin season indicators sit at bear-market lows.
Blockchain Center’s Altcoin Season Index stands around 35 (out of 100) – its weakest reading since July – and CoinMarketCap’s live altseason gauge reads only 24/100 (signaling “Bitcoin season”).
In short, Bitcoin still dominates, even as crypto market analysts cite catalysts that could eventually fuel an altseason rally.
Some crypto investors remain bullish that easing monetary policy will rotate capital into altcoins.
Ash Crypto and other crypto market analysts note that a succession of Federal Reserve rate cuts and balance-sheet support could drive funds back into risk assets.
In a social-media analysis, Ash Crypto said a “massive liquidity shift” later in 2025 could produce a “parabolic” altcoin rally.
He argues this would mirror past cycles (2017 and 2021) when a late-cycle Fed pivot preceded strong altcoin outperformance.
Another on-chain crypto market analyst (“Crypto GEMs”) pointed out that past Fed liquidity injections coincided with the onset of previous altseasons.
Adding to the speculative case, over 150 exchange-traded fund applications focused on altcoins are still pending SEC approval – a large backlog that could add fuel if even a fraction are green-lighted.
Despite these bullish narratives, quantitative measures of altseason are signaling caution. In fact, nearly every altcoin-season index is at multi-month lows.
BlockchainCenter.net’s gauge currently reads 37 (on a 100-point scale), explicitly signaling “It is not Altcoin Season!”
CoinMarketCap’s own Altcoin Season Index shows 24/100 (still in “Bitcoin Season” territory). Other trackers agree: TradingView notes CryptoRank’s index is 24 and Bitget’s is 30, while the Blockchain Center version (at 35) is “the lowest it has been since July.”
In practical terms, fewer than 25% of the top 100 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days, by CoinMarketCap’s methodology.
Crypto market performance largely confirms the lopsided picture. Aside from a handful of outliers, most altcoins are quietly lagging Bitcoin.
As per TradingView data, only a few tokens have surged: BNB and Hyperliquid (HYPE) recently hit new highs, and small-cap coins like Solana, Zcash and World Liberty Finance (WLFI) have shown gains.
But the vast majority of altcoins remain near multi-year lows. According to CoinGecko data, today’s leaders (BNB, SOL, HYPE, ZEC, WLFI) are exceptions.
In aggregate, Bitcoin’s rally and continued dominance (now roughly 59% market share) have so far crowded out a broad altcoin season.
Crypto market analysts note that bull-market dynamics often shift from blue-chip assets to smaller tokens later in a cycle.
However, current market conditions – high Bitcoin dominance and subdued altcoin indices – suggest it is still “Bitcoin Season” by the books.
That said, the presence of over 150 pending altcoin-ETF filings and an expected Fed easing path mean many are watching for signs of a turning point.
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