He says nations began hoarding gold after the U.S. froze Russia’s reserves in 2022, fearing the same could happen to them.
Arthur Hayes is just watching governments do what they’ve always done: choose control over freedom, paper over truth with printed bills, and make damn sure the world sticks to the rules they write. And when they have to pick between Bitcoin and gold, they don’t even blink.
“Sovereigns buy gold. People like me? We buy Bitcoin,” Arthur said during a no‑bullshit interview with Coin Bureau, where he laid out why nation-states are doubling down on gold while individuals flee to crypto for one thing: freedom.
Bitcoin is freedom‑proof, it runs without permission, can’t be seized, and lets you walk away with your wealth in your head. But gold is politics‑proof, it’s trusted, old, and has been traded between nations for thousands of years. Arthur said that’s why “you could lose your job if you bought Bitcoin and it tanked 75%.
You won’t if you buy gold.” And the world’s governments don’t care about your freedom; they only care about their power.
Every Bitcoin cycle begins with money printers
Arthur broke down four major Bitcoin cycles and how every single one had its roots in credit expansion. The first came in 2009, right as Ben Bernanke at the Federal Reserve launched unlimited quantitative easing after a $700 billion bailout. Bitcoin was born at that moment.
Then came China’s massive infrastructure stimulus between 2008 and 2011. “Both China and the U.S. were printing a shit ton of money,” Arthur said, and Bitcoin took off.
By late 2013, things reversed. The Fed slowed liquidity, China pulled back on credit, and the first bubble popped at $1,300. Then came 2015, when a random Bitfinex wick liquidated 6,000 BTC. Arthur remembered it.
So did the markets. China soon devalued its currency and fired up another stimulus wave. That led to the 2017 rally. “China did housing, infrastructure, all of it,” Arthur explained. But as the U.S. hiked rates, the party ended.
Then came COVID. The U.S. handed out stimulus checks like candy. Arthur said people “bought Bitcoin, bought cars, bought whatever the fuck they wanted.” That’s what pushed Bitcoin to $69,000 in 2021. But once Jerome Powell hinted at rate hikes in March 2022, that was it. “That was the top,” Arthur said.
The current cycle? It’s Janet Yellen’s doing. Arthur called her “Bad Girl Yellen” and said she drained $2.5 trillion from the reverse repo to juice markets while Powell pretended to fight inflation.
Now, that facility is empty. Arthur said we’re at the edge of the next move, and “as long as politicians keep printing, we keep pumping.” He expects the rally to extend into 2027 or 2028, because “they’re all lying, and they’re not raising taxes. They’ll just print.”
Sovereigns ditch treasuries and hoard gold
Arthur said the gold story changed in February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and the U.S. froze their reserves. “They stole Russia’s money, and that was a wake-up call,” he said. He pointed out that sovereign wealth managers saw how easy it is for the U.S. to seize assets if it doesn’t like your country or your politics.
Since then, China, Singapore, and others have been “hoovering gold.” They’re dumping treasuries and stocking up on gold because, Arthur said, “if it can happen to Russia, it can happen to anyone.” The breaking point came when Israel bombed Qatar, the world’s largest gas exporter.
Arthur said that exposed how little control the U.S. actually has over its own so-called allies. “If I’m selling oil in a currency that’s losing 8-9% a year and I’m still getting bombed, why the fuck am I doing this?” he asked.
That’s why countries like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are signing new security deals, and why China and Saudi Arabia are now settling oil trades in yuan, not dollars.
But Bitcoin? Still too risky for sovereigns. Arthur said it’s a credit story, tied to dollar liquidity, not politics. “Once banks tighten, Bitcoin reacts. That’s why it dropped 20%.” He pointed to the SOFR rates trading above Fed funds and said the Fed’s been injecting emergency cash again.
“That’s why Bitcoin dipped. It’s not about ETFs or memes. It’s dollars.” Arthur owns both Bitcoin and gold. But he doesn’t mix them up. “Gold buys you oil and medicine. Bitcoin gets you out.”
He also talked about altcoins, saying he sold Hype for two reasons: token unlocks and a down payment on a Ferrari Testarossa. “Everyone wants a Ferrari, bro, especially in Singapore.”
Arthur said the unlocks will compress the multiple. He plans to buy back in, but only after the market reprices future earnings. “They say Jeff won’t sell. Yeah, right. Everyone sells.”
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