There is a lot of money to made in the college football Week 4 evening slate. I feel particularly good about a handful of low leverage spots. But that’s not what the people want. Miami taking on Florida. Illinois taking on Indiana. Let’s eat out vegetables before we get to the obscure plays.
College football is a party all day and my last play kicks off at 11PM EST for those who are in it for the long haul.
At the core of this Miami versus Florida matchup is a difference in expectations. Florida entered the season with a high ceiling and the expectation was for DJ Lagway to finish the season as a Heisman finalist. Miami, on the other hand, was supposed to be in a down year after losing the first overall pick in the draft.
Next thing you know, Florida drops two in a row and Miami upsets Notre Dame and now people are trying to force the Gators into an early grave. The line currently sits at -7.5 for the Canes and that’s just too many points.
Florida is in a do or die spot, coming off a week of listening to the entire world saying they suck. Miami, conversely, is at the top of the mountain. The win over Notre Dame doesn’t look as good now that the Irish are still winless as we inch closer to October.
I’m siding with the Gators in a potentially season ending spot, I think they are live to knock off 7th ranked Miami drawing +250 on the money line.
The thing that worries me the most about 9th ranked Illinois playing 19th ranked Indiana is the spread. Why are the Fighting Illini 6.5 point underdogs on the road against Kurt Cignetti and the Hoosiers?
Illinois has looked better every week this season. They have the most impressive win. They have the better quarterback. They’ve already won on the road once. What am I missing?
I hate to remind you, but the Hoosiers were completely blown out in their only two games against ranked opponents last season.
The Illini return one of the best quarterbacks in the conference and I trust them to keep it close on the road getting 6.5. I also think they are live on the money line at +215.
The money is in the margins for college football betting. I have my eyes on a handful of let down spots in Week 4.
My absolute favorite play of the day is the Kansas Jayhawks to blowout the West Virginia Mountaineers at home. WVU is coming off a field storming win in the biggest rivalry game in the conference. Their coach was crying on the field, he did interviews with Sports Center and Pat McAfee. Playing Kansas was the last thing on their mind after that win over Pitt. I think Heisman hopeful Jaylen Daniels is going to expose WVU in a big way at home. Give me Kansas -12.5.
Washington State is 20.5 point home underdogs hosting Washington in the Apple Cup in what used to be one of the Pac 12’s best rivalries. Wazzou is one of two teams still left in the Pac 12. They are playing for nothing. This is their Super Bowl. What has Washington done to earn three touchdowns? They have beaten Colorado State and an FCS team so far this season. I like the Cougs here.
UTEP has looked good twice, ULM has looked bad twice. Take the Miners -4.5 at home.
USC is a -18.5 point favorite against Michigan State in what will be an 11:00 PM EST kickoff. It’ll be 2 AM by the time this wraps up. Michigan State traveling 2,000 miles and playing at midnight seems like a recipe for disaster. They’re 3-0 with three home wins over inferior opponents, I like this as a giant let down spot. Lay the points with USC.
