ADA’s surge from late December completed a full five-wave advance, having already hit key Fibonacci extension targets.
Independent Elliott Wave analyst and YouTube host of “More Crypto Online” says Cardano’s latest surge “looks complete” as a five-wave structure, yet still leaves room for “one or two more highs” as long as key support holds.
In a new short-term update focused on ADA’s lower time-frames, the analyst argues that the move that began around December 31 has likely formed a full five-wave advance, a classic pattern that can mark the first leg of a larger uptrend — or the end of a local push before a deeper pullback. The caveat: the micro structure is “pretty ugly” with “very, very shallow pullbacks,” which makes precise wave labeling difficult.
Five-Wave Sequence Hits Key Fibonacci Targets
The move from late December has, in his count, produced a sequence of “5 up, 3 down, 5 up, 3 down, 5 up,” aligning with a completed five-wave pattern on the short-term chart.
He notes that ADA has already reached the 161.8% Fibonacci extension target for the fifth wave, and has now pushed into the 200% extension zone around $0.433. That cluster of Fibonacci targets is one reason he says the pattern “looks complete,” even if it hasn’t yet confirmed a top.
Earlier resistance around $0.382 has flipped into support and was explicitly watched as a sentiment line in the sand. Losing that area, he suggests, would have “not been productive or constructive” for the bullish setup.
Upside Still Open, But Pullback Risk Builds
Despite the apparent completion of the pattern, the analyst is not calling a top. With Bitcoin’s structure still allowing for higher prices and ADA’s short-term support intact, he is “keeping the door open” for additional highs.
For now, he frames the key levels clearly:
* As long as ADA holds above roughly $0.391, the focus “can remain on higher prices.”
* A deeper corrective wave 2, if it unfolds, should find its main support near $0.349.
A break of that area would challenge the idea that this is the first wave of a larger uptrend.
He stresses that he doesn’t “really buy” the larger bullish interpretation yet and wants to see how the next pullback behaves before assigning higher confidence to a new macro impulse.
Why It Matters for Traders
For active traders, the message is tactical rather than celebratory: ADA has hit textbook extension targets and built a fragile five-wave structure on thin pullbacks. Near-term upside remains possible, but risk of a sharper correction increases the longer price hovers in this extension zone without resetting support.
Longer-term investors may see this as an early test of whether Cardano’s latest bounce is simply another rally within a range — or the first confirmed leg of a more durable uptrend heading into 2025-2026, a scenario the analyst has discussed on higher timeframes.
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