Bitcoin has hit a fresh all-time high, and its next move will either be a powerful breakout into uncharted territory or a pause to make way for the looming altcoin season, according to Bitcoin pioneer Samson Mow.
In early Thursday trading, Bitcoin reached $124,500 on Coinbase, data from TradingView shows. The gain of 3.5% for the day pushed the total cryptocurrency market capitalization to a record $4.26 trillion.
Mow, a long-time Bitcoin advocate, outlined two possible scenarios for what comes next:
“We either ‘Godzilla’ or ‘Omega’ up, sucking all the oxygen out of the market and sending altcoins down 30–40%,” he said. “Or we see ‘alt mania’ peak, triggering a big sell-off as the ‘Bagholder’s Dilemma’ collapses. In that case, BTC might dip briefly before rallying again when altcoins crash.”
The outspoken Bitcoin maximalist also took aim at Ether, noting the disparity in market valuations:
“No matter what, it’s impossible for Ethereum to be worth 4,600,000 BTC,” he said. “This has to correct sooner or later.”
The Bagholder’s Dilemma
Earlier this week, Mow revisited his concept of the “Bagholder’s Dilemma,” predicting that Ethereum investors could soon start selling their holdings and rotating back into Bitcoin.
He argued that ETH will struggle to break its all-time high because “the closer you get to that psychological level, the stronger the incentive to sell.” In his view, this dynamic doesn’t apply to Bitcoin.
Over the past 30 days, Ether has significantly outpaced Bitcoin’s performance, soaring 58% compared to BTC’s modest 3.5% gain over the same period.
Altcoins are overheating
Jan3 CEO Samson Mow predicted that Bitcoin will set more all-time highs but expects a pullback in the short term, noting that “alts are running too hot right now.”
He said that once the current “altcoin mania” fades, Bitcoin will resume its climb: “This is just how it’s always been.”
Data from TradingView shows Bitcoin dominance has fallen by about 10% since late June, dipping below 60% for the first time since January this week. Historically, sharp drops in Bitcoin dominance have signaled the onset of altseason.
Now is the moment for DeFi
Some industry experts believe investor enthusiasm for Bitcoin may ease, with decentralized finance poised to take center stage.
“We expect ETH and DeFi assets to keep outperforming, driven by supportive regulations and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA),” Apollo Capital CIO Henrik Andersson told Cointelegraph.
He noted that total value locked in DeFi is at an all-time high and climbing rapidly, which in turn is boosting DeFi revenues.
“We are entering a new paradigm where BTC is the low beta asset, its annualised 30-day volatility has collapsed to 23%.”
Meanwhile, LVRG Research director Nick Ruck told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin may consolidate around its current levels, noting that “declining dominance and rising altcoin volumes point to the start of altseason, driven by ETH’s outperformance and speculative inflows into DeFi tokens.”
