Bitcoin opened the first week of February near 16-month lows, with traders bracing for further downside.
- Bitcoin’s price weakness deepened after a grim weekend, with BTC/USD sliding to levels last seen in November 2024.
- Despite the decline, relative strength index (RSI) readings remain the primary signal supporting expectations of a potential market rebound.
- At the same time, shifting macroeconomic conditions are beginning to emerge, with some analysts warning that Bitcoin may be signaling broader market stress ahead.
- Traditional assets are also under pressure, as gold, silver and equities trend lower, while U.S. dollar strength rebounds.
- Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium has fallen sharply into negative territory, highlighting weak demand for Bitcoin from U.S. investors.
Bitcoin is hovering near a key 2021 resistance level, with traders warning of a potential move toward $50,000.
Price action around the weekly and monthly candle close left most market participants firmly bearish. Selling pressure intensified at the start of the week, with BTC/USD breaking below its April 2025 low on Monday to reach its weakest levels since November 2024, according to TradingView data.
Some market participants said Bitcoin’s lack of strength since last year was already raising concerns, warning that the worst may still lie ahead.
“$76,000 is the last support before the $50,000 area,” trader Roman wrote in his latest analysis on X.
“Lots of volume on the drop which is further confirmation of bearish price action. Again, we are in the bear phase of the market and I’m anticipating 50k and potentially lower.”
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on a range of bearish Bitcoin price targets that extend below the $50,000 level.
Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe told his followers on X to watch for a bottom in precious metals before the crypto “bloodbath” comes to an end.
Trader CrypNuevo said that even a potential relief bounce in Bitcoin was not yet imminent.
In an update to followers outlining his targets for the week ahead, he suggested that a price reversal would only occur after Bitcoin revisits the area near the previous all-time highs from the 2021 bull market.
“Now we’re very close to this level, and I’ll be paying close attention to it,” he said.
Elsewhere, attention focused on open “gaps” in the CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market, these lying at $84,000 and $95,000.
“Large CME gaps suggest that this latest move was more of a downside ‘fakeout,’” said Andre Dragosch, European head of research at crypto asset manager Bitwise.
Bitcoin RSI nears 2022 bear market lows
As traders search for signs of a potential macro bottom and bullish reversal in Bitcoin, attention has turned to a classic leading indicator.
On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) is approaching a key level. RSI, one of the most widely used momentum indicators, measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold at a given price.
Bitcoin’s weekly RSI currently sits at 32.2, just above the oversold threshold. Trader Mags noted that similar levels were last seen near the bottom of the 2022 bear market.
“At $76,000, Bitcoin’s one-day RSI is at its most oversold level since BTC traded around $26,000,” the analytics account named after economist Frank Fetter said, citing data from onchain analytics firm Checkonchain.
Examining the monthly stochastic RSI last week, trader and analyst Titan of Crypto suggested that Bitcoin’s macro bottoming phase could be prolonged.
“Historically, when the monthly stochastic RSI falls below 20, it tends to signal the start of a bear market. Prices usually need time to form a proper bottom,” he explained.
“In past cycles, meaningful reversals only occurred after the stochastic RSI moved back above 20, signaling that the bottoming process had already played out. This is why I remain cautious with claims that ‘the bottom is already in.’ We may be witnessing confirmation, not completion.”
Bitcoin “warning” amid macro liquidity squeeze
U.S. corporate earnings season is “in full swing” this week, with Amazon and Google set to report results.
The stakes are high for the tech giants after last week’s declines for Intel and Microsoft, despite both companies beating earnings expectations.
The broader market sell-off adds further pressure on crypto investors. Trading newsletter The Kobeissi Letter described the current environment as one of “elevated” uncertainty.
Amid Bitcoin’s sharp decline, analysts are increasingly viewing the cryptocurrency as a potential leading indicator of broader market stress.
“At a time when fund manager sentiment is approaching bullish extremes, Bitcoin could be signaling caution about financial market liquidity,” Mosaic Asset Company wrote in the latest edition of its newsletter, The Market Mosaic.
Mosaic noted that BTC/USD appears to be forming a bearish head-and-shoulders reversal pattern.
“The continued breakdown in Bitcoin may be sending an early warning about financial market liquidity later this year,” the firm added.
Earlier, concerns were raised that U.S. inflation could rebound later in 2026. Last week, the December Producer Price Index (PPI) came in above estimates.
“The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.4 percent in December, the eighth consecutive increase,” the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported.
This week, investors will focus on unemployment figures as the major macroeconomic release, alongside multiple public appearances from Federal Reserve officials. Jeff Mei, chief operations officer at the BTSE exchange, told Cointelegraph on Monday that uncertainty surrounding the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, is adding pressure to crypto markets.
Gold rout hits four-decade lows
Record volatility is also affecting precious metals. Gold fell to $4,400 per ounce during Monday’s Asia trading session, marking its lowest level in nearly a month.
Over just three daily sessions, XAU/USD has fallen more than 20% from its $5,600 all-time high, with gold and silver together wiping out roughly $4 trillion in market value.
Mosaic linked the market’s sudden reversal directly to the announcement of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, noting that markets remain highly sensitive to negative news following their record run.
“Concerns over a hawkish Fed chair, less accommodative to capital markets, sparked a U.S. dollar rally from a key level and contributed to a sharp decline in precious metals,” Mosaic summarized.
“Following news of the Warsh nomination, gold prices fell nearly 10% while silver plunged by over 30%. Those were the worst single-day declines since the early 1980s.”
U.S. stock futures reinforced the gloomy outlook at the start of the week, while the U.S. dollar sought to cement a rebound from multi-year lows.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) had fallen to 95.50 on Jan. 30, a level not seen since 2022.
“While a declining dollar has been a major driver behind gains in precious metals, last week’s failed breakdown was likely a key catalyst for the sharp pullback in gold and silver,” Mosaic noted.
A traditionally strong dollar tends to weigh on risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies, with a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve supporting a DXY recovery.
Analyst and author Joey Keasberry said he was surprised by the dollar’s current behavior, suggesting it may be forming a “significant bottom.”
“That could indicate that an old-fashioned risk-off environment is about to turn heads,” he told followers on X.
Coinbase Premium signals U.S. demand “vacuum”
Despite Bitcoin hitting its lowest levels in nearly a year, investors have yet to return to long positions.
Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant described a “structural vacuum” in U.S. spot demand in its latest research.
Examining the Coinbase Premium—the price difference between Coinbase’s BTC/USD and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs—CryptoQuant noted that conditions have worsened compared with last year.
“In Feb–Apr 2025, Coinbase Premium was negative, but the discounts appeared in bursts and were quickly worked off. That pattern is more consistent with tactical selling than a market lacking bids entirely,” contributor TeddyVision wrote in a Quicktake blog post.
“Now it’s different. The negative prints are deeper and they stick. Premium stays below zero for long stretches, with only brief, shallow relief. That’s not just selling – it’s U.S. spot demand staying on the sidelines.”
A negative Coinbase Premium indicates that Asian demand is outpacing U.S. interest, turning Wall Street trading hours into a potential source of downward pressure on Bitcoin prices.
The premium has remained negative since mid-December, with two failed attempts to break into positive territory. On Jan. 30, it hit -0.177, its lowest level in more than a year.
“Short dips can occur for many reasons. But when the discount persists even after price has adjusted, it typically signals that buyers aren’t stepping in,” CryptoQuant added.
