Bitcoin traders flagged multiple indicators pointing to a potential “massive” upside move, though onchain data suggests any price recovery may be delayed as market participants adopt a more cautious stance.
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin surged 600% in 2021 after a similar key bullish cross was confirmed.
- Onchain data points to persistent sell-side pressure, suggesting that a BTC price recovery might take time.
BTC bullish cross points to potential bull run
Analyst Coinvo Trading has identified a rare bullish crossover involving the Stochastic RSI of the US 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y) and China’s 10-Year government bond yield (CN10Y) when overlaid on Bitcoin’s weekly chart.
Described as “Bitcoin’s most accurate bull run signal,” the setup has appeared only four times historically, each preceding major price rallies, Coinvo Trading said in a recent post on X.
The most recent occurrence was in October 2020, when a similar Stochastic RSI crossover marked the beginning of a roughly 600% surge that carried BTC to its 2021 all-time high near $69,000.
Fellow analyst Matthew Hyland also pointed to the US dollar strength index (DXY) as a potential catalyst for a Bitcoin breakout.
Hyland said BTC/USD could stage a rally if the DXY falls below the 96 level — a pattern previously observed ahead of major Bitcoin upswings in both 2017 and 2022.
Meanwhile, gold climbed to a fresh record above $5,000, while Bitcoin continued to trade within a narrow range, widening the divergence between the two assets.
Analysts at Swan said the gap is nothing to worry about, noting that gold typically leads the move, with Bitcoin often consolidating for months before eventually breaking out “violently.”
Bitcoin market remains “fragile”
Bitcoin’s prospects for a sustained rebound above key price levels appear constrained by weak buying demand.
The spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) — which tracks the net balance between buying and selling pressure — has flipped decisively negative, signaling a shift toward sell-side control.
Glassnode data shows the metric plunged to minus $194.2 million last week, down from a positive $54.2 million the week before. The move suggests traders have adopted a markedly risk-off stance, reflecting waning confidence in Bitcoin’s near-term upside, according to Glassnode’s latest Weekly Market Impulse report.
Meanwhile, weekly net flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs swung sharply from a $1.6 billion inflow to a $1.7 billion outflow, pointing to cooling institutional appetite and rising near-term downside risk, the onchain data provider noted, adding:
“Overall, market conditions have shifted more defensive, while persistent sell-side pressure and rising hedging demand suggest the market remains fragile.”
As reported, Bitcoin may be heading into another extended consolidation phase, weighed down by strong overhead resistance, sustained selling from spot BTC ETFs and rising macroeconomic uncertainty.
