Bitcoin is on track for its worst November since 2018, but a new forecast predicts a BTC price bottom this week.
Key points:
- Bitcoin is on pace to record its weakest November performance since the 2018 bear market.
- Historically, December has followed a similar pattern after a “red” November.
- AI forecasts that BTC/USD is likely to hit a local bottom this week.
November Mirrors 2018 Bitcoin Bear Market
Bitcoin remains entrenched in bear market territory as the month of November nears its close, with a drawdown of up to 36% from October’s all-time highs.
According to data from CoinGlass, Bitcoin is currently down 20% for the month, trading around $87,500.
CoinGlass notes that this level of bearish performance hasn’t been seen since 2018, the year after a bull market peaked at $20,000.
“Every time Bitcoin has had a red November, December has also ended red,” said Sumit Kapoor, founder of the crypto trading community WiseAdvice, commenting on the data in a post on X.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged gains of over 40% in November, while December has typically been more subdued, with an average upside of just 5%.
BTC on Track for a “Slow Recovery” Into 2026
Looking ahead, network economist Timothy Peterson offered a more optimistic outlook for Bitcoin’s price as 2025 wraps up.
An AI-driven prediction tool indicates that Bitcoin has either already reached its local bottom or will do so this week.
“AI-driven Bitcoin simulations suggest the bottom is either in or will occur this week, with a gradual recovery expected through the end of the year,” Peterson shared in a post on X this Monday.
“There is less than 50% chance Bitcoin reclaims $100,000 by December 31. There is at least a 15% chance Bitcoin finishes lower from here ($84,500) and an 85% chance it finishes higher.”
He noted that the model does not account for external volatility catalysts, such as macroeconomic events.
Previous findings, which overlaid BTC price action this year onto 2015, likewise hinted that a major rebound could come by the end of the year.
Peterson nonetheless described the concept as “hopium.”
