Key takeaways:
- With 98% of Bitcoin’s supply in profit, bullish sentiment grows—but analysts caution about rising volatility and possible price corrections.
- Experts forecast BTC could reach $200,000 by 2025, though continued strong demand remains crucial.
Predictions of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025 are gaining traction, driven by a surge in profitability that reflects rising bullish sentiment—though it also raises the risk of a short-term price correction.
Bitcoin supply in profit soars to 98%
According to on-chain data from Glassnode, the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit jumped from 87% on June 22 to 98% by Sunday. As of Tuesday, around 96.7% of all BTC remained in profit, hovering above the upper band illustrated in the chart below.
Historically, such high levels of profitability have triggered increased market volatility, as the likelihood of profit-taking rises. While this reflects strong bullish sentiment, it also signals caution for potential price corrections.
For example, between January and April, Bitcoin’s price dropped from approximately $109,000 to $74,000—an event that followed the profitable supply peaking at 98.8% on January 21.
Profitability metrics highlight the market’s bullish yet cautious tone. Since June 22, Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio has surged from 1.1 to 2.8—a 156.4% increase—surpassing the high band threshold of 2.4.
“This indicates strong market confidence, but also suggests an increased risk of profit-taking and potential demand exhaustion if price momentum weakens,” Glassnode analysts noted in their latest Weekly Market Pulse report.
They added, “The market appears to have entered a cautiously optimistic phase, marked by stronger institutional positioning and renewed accumulation.”
“For this rally to sustain, continued demand and broader market confidence will be essential.”
Bitcoin Poised for “Explosive” Surge Toward $200,000
Since rebounding from the bear market low of $15,500 in November 2022, Bitcoin has surged 590% to around $107,000. According to analyst Stockmoney Lizards, this rally has formed a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, creating a channel on the weekly chart.
“Bitcoin is on the verge of breaking out of a multi-year channel,” the analyst noted in a post on X Monday.
The accompanying chart showed BTC testing the upper trendline, with Stockmoney Lizards projecting a short-term target of $140,000 and an end-of-year goal of $200,000.
“The next leg will be explosive.”
This outlook aligns with the analyst’s earlier forecast that Bitcoin’s breakout above the monthly Optimized Trend Tracker (OTT) bands points to a $200,000 target in 2025, with a potential “extension” to $250,000 next year.
Analyst Mags echoed a similar sentiment, noting that a breakout above the same upper trendline highlighted by Stockmoney Lizards “could trigger a massive bull run.” Mags has set a short-term target at the 2.618 Fibonacci level, around $155,000.
The $200,000 Bitcoin price target is gaining traction as a popular forecast for the second half of 2025. For instance, Sina, co-founder of 21st Capital, projects BTC could reach between $130,000 and $200,000 by Q4 2025, based on a power law model.
Bitwise Investment attributes a potential surge to a weakening U.S. Dollar Index, which they believe could be driven by former President Donald Trump’s trade policies—potentially propelling BTC to $200,000.
Meanwhile, Bernstein Research also sees Bitcoin hitting $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing rising institutional demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs and BTC treasury adoption.
