Historical patterns remain an important guide for investors when positioning. In the current market, excessive optimism seems premature, as volatility continues to weigh on sentiment.
Reinforcing this caution, President Trump’s back-and-forth over the next Fed Chair is keeping risk markets on edge. The lack of clarity is weighing on sentiment, as any final decision would carry a significant impact.
Case in point: On the 16th of January, Trump once again walked back reports of appointing Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair, triggering a risk-off move across equities and crypto and pushing Bitcoin [BTC] down 1.45%.
In this context, history suggests caution remains the better trade.
Take the October crash. The Federal shutdown initially muted volatility and sparked a Bitcoin bounce as key data went dark. The result? BTC rolled over and slid 30% by mid-November as rate-cut uncertainty resurfaced.
Now, with volatility around President Trump’s next Fed Chair pick, uncertainty is building while the market remains split on upcoming FOMC rate moves. In this setup, a cooled-off derivatives market makes sense.
That said, the Bitcoin options market is showing renewed optimism. However, with volatility still elevated, the question is: Are we headed for another flash crash, or have investors learned to trade through the FUD?
A key divergence is forming in Bitcoin positioning.
Despite macro FUD, HODLing pressure is keeping investors steady. As one prominent analyst noted, BTC whales from the December trade, with a cost basis of $90k-$92k, aren’t capitulating even while sitting underwater.
Meanwhile, institutional demand is still strong, with Strategy (MSTR) continuing to tighten available supply. In this context, the “call” skew in Bitcoin options looks strategic, with the put/call ratio down 10% to 0.71.
To put it in perspective, a 0.71 put/call ratio means that out of every 100 options, 71 are calls (bets on the price going up). In practice, this reflects “renewed” bullish positioning, with more traders favoring calls over puts.
Taken together, Bitcoin’s current positioning points to cautious optimism.
According to AMBCrypto, as long as this positioning holds, it underscores a market where HODLing outweighs capitulation, marking a key divergence in investor behavior and supporting Bitcoin’s push toward $100k.
