**January 17th** Crypto Quant analyst Axel noted that Bitcoin’s current price ($95,500) is closing in on the average cost basis for short-term holders ($99,460), with the gap between the two shrinking to just 4%. Axel explained the current scenario falls into a decision zone rather than a market pullback. Historically, areas near cost bases often see heightened volatility, acting as a reaction zone where the trend could either continue or reverse — either moving back to a premium state or facing fresh selling pressure. Two key scenarios to watch: – If Bitcoin stabilizes above $100,000 and short-term holders flip from loss to profit, they will revert to a bullish stance. – If the discount rate returns to double digits (below -10%, corresponding to a price drop to ~$89,500), it will significantly increase pressure on holders sitting on losses.
