Bitcoin starts a new week at an important crossroads as analysis sees the chance for a new short squeeze.
- Bitcoin finished the week holding above its crucial 200-week trend line, fueling renewed optimism for a move toward $75,000.
- Liquidations remain elevated, though one trader argues that long positions may now have the upper hand.
- A fresh batch of US inflation reports could inject volatility into risk assets later in the week.
- Onchain metrics show mounting risk, with the net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) ratio climbing to its highest level in three years.
- A rise in loss-making UTXOs indicates Bitcoin could be entering the early stages of another bear cycle.
Bitcoin faces 2024 range and “a lot of uncertainty”
Bitcoin posted a relatively subdued weekly candle close on Sunday, but traders remain acutely aware of the importance of its current price zone.
Hovering near $68,800 on Bitstamp, according to data from TradingView, the weekly close landed above a crucial long-term trend line — a level widely seen as pivotal for sustaining further upside momentum.
With Bitcoin trading around $68,343, the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) stands out as one of two critical battleground levels for traders. The second is Bitcoin’s former 2021 all-time high, positioned just above $69,000 — another key threshold closely watched by market participants.
“We’re back inside a previously significant range that held price for seven months,” trader CrypNuevo wrote in his latest analysis on X.
He pointed to the prolonged consolidation around the $69,000 level that Bitcoin formed in 2024, noting that last week BTC/USD retraced nearly half of its wick to 15-month lows set earlier in February — a move that could carry broader trend implications.
“Bitcoin may consolidate here for a while,” he added, suggesting that price action could revisit the lower boundary of the range before any decisive breakout.
“Only if: 1. Bitcoin drops back to the 50% wick-fill level (signal for 100% wick-fill). 2. Acceptance below 100% wick.”
CrypNuevo identified a potential rebound toward $75,000 as the catalyst for a “surprise recovery,” arguing that Bitcoin often moves counter to prevailing market sentiment.
He also cautioned that the week ahead carries “a lot of uncertainty,” noting that a US bank holiday on Monday could lead to irregular trading conditions — likely translating into subdued volatility at the start of the week.
Bitcoin liquidations surge near $70,000
Even though BTC price volatility has cooled since rebounding from $59,000 lows, the market remains extremely reactive to relatively small price swings.
That sensitivity is evident in persistently high liquidation levels across crypto derivatives markets, where both long and short positions clustered near the spot price continue to be wiped out.
According to data from CoinGlass, total liquidations over the past 24 hours exceeded $250 million at the time of writing — despite BTC/USD trading within a narrow range of less than $3,000 during that period.
Data from CoinGlass shows traders adding to long Bitcoin positions just below the $68,000 level as the new week gets underway.
Trader CW warned that this cluster of leveraged longs could become the next liquidity target for large players. Even so, CW noted that bulls still appear to have the upper hand in the current structure.
“Despite significant liquidation of $BTC long positions, longs remain dominant. Expectations for a bullish trend remain intact,” they told followers on X.
Earlier, on Friday, BTC/USD briefly surged above $70,000 during Wall Street trading hours, triggering a wave of short liquidations that outpaced recent records. With roughly 10,700 BTC wiped out, the daily short liquidation total marked its highest level since September 2024.
Reacting to the move, crypto exchange Bitfinex suggested that sustained spot demand could turn the squeeze into a broader trend reversal. “If spot demand follows, this squeeze could be the first sign the downside trend is running out of steam,” it wrote on X.
PCE and GDP headline a volatile macro week
With US markets shut on Monday for the Presidents’ Day holiday, the most impactful economic releases — and any resulting risk-asset volatility — are set to arrive later in the week.
At the top of the list is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, widely viewed as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Fourth-quarter GDP figures are scheduled for release the same day, Friday.
The timing is critical for monetary policy. Recent inflation data has painted a mixed picture of the US economy, fueling uncertainty across markets. While last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) print came in below expectations, traders still see little chance of the Fed pivoting back to rate cuts at its March meeting.
Data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows the probability of rates remaining unchanged next month holding above 90%.
“Expect more volatility this week,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter told followers on X, summarizing the key macro catalysts ahead.
“Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain and macroeconomic uncertainty is elevated.”
In the latest issue of its newsletter The Market Mosaic, analytics firm Mosaic Asset Company pointed to last week’s US employment report as another complication for the Federal Reserve.
“The report is clouding the outlook for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with market-implied odds pointing to two quarter-point cuts later this year. However, the 2-year Treasury yield — which typically leads shifts in the fed funds rate — is hovering near the bottom of the current target range and implies no cuts at all,” the newsletter stated.
Analysis highlights mid-$50,000 support zone
In separate research released Monday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant argued that future price floors for Bitcoin will increasingly depend on “investor resilience.”
Reviewing price action from early February, contributor GugaOnChain flagged a potential battleground below $60,000 where two major metrics converge.
At that level, Bitcoin’s 200-week simple moving average (SMA) aligns with its realized price — the aggregate onchain cost basis of circulating supply.
“A 50% correction toward the 200-period moving average on the weekly chart — which coincides with the realized price around $55,800 — would represent a critical test,” GugaOnChain wrote in a Quicktake post, adding that many analysts view the area as a potential accumulation zone.
“However, the turn toward recovery now depends on investor resilience.”
The report also highlighted relatively subdued readings on the net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) metric, a key gauge of overall profitability across Bitcoin holdings.
NUPL is currently at 0.201, rebounding from 0.11 recorded on Feb. 6 — its lowest level since March 2023.
According to GugaOnChain, the indicator remains “in the fear region,” signaling that a significant portion of market participants are still sitting on limited unrealized gains.
Bitcoin may still lack a “real bottom”
Additional onchain profitability indicators suggest the market may not have reached a definitive floor yet, warning that the current BTC pullback could mark the early phase of a broader “regime change.”
Rather than signaling a completed correction, the data implies that underlying market structure may still be shifting — raising the possibility that further downside could precede any sustained recovery.
CryptoQuant also highlighted the adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR), an onchain metric that tracks the proportion of coins being moved at prices higher than their previous transaction.
The aSOPR metric filters out coins that are transacted multiple times within an hour, reducing “noise” from short-term movements that don’t reflect true losses for holders.
On Feb. 6, aSOPR fell below its breakeven level of 1, signaling realized losses on a scale not seen since 2023, near the end of Bitcoin’s previous bear market.
“In 2019 and 2023, similar readings appeared during deep corrective phases, when coins were being spent at a loss,” noted contributor Woo Minkyu in a Quicktake post.
“Each time, this zone represented capitulation pressure and structural reset. Now, aSOPR is again pressing into that same region.”
Woo Minkyu described the current Bitcoin market structure as reminiscent of previous bear-transition phases.
“Unlike mid-cycle pullbacks, where aSOPR quickly recovers above 1.0, this move reflects sustained weakness and ongoing loss realization,” he said. “If aSOPR fails to reclaim 1.0 soon, it increases the likelihood that we are not seeing a simple correction, but rather transitioning into a broader bear phase.”
The metric currently sits at 0.996, managing only brief spikes above breakeven throughout the past month.
“aSOPR is signaling structural deterioration. This looks less like a dip, and more like a regime shift,” Woo concluded.
“The real bottom may still require deeper compression before a durable reversal forms.”
