Following a 47% decline from its October peak, Standard Chartered has slashed its year-end 2026 forecast to US$100,000, citing the risk of a further slide to US$50,000 before a potential recovery.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) options market and loan structures are concentrating attention on the US$60K (AU$91K) level.
A recent report by Bloomberg, citing Deribit data, shows that the largest cluster of open interest is in put options that pay off if Bitcoin falls below US$60K, with open interest in US$60K puts at about US$1.24 billion (AU$1.90 billion).
Just beneath that zone sits Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, a widely watched long-term technical support level, currently a little above US$58,000 (AU$88,740).
Market participants said a drop into that area could trigger automatic collateral sales tied to Bitcoin-backed loans.
Maxime Seiler, chief executive of digital-asset trading firm STS Digital, told Bloomberg that many loan agreements are structured so lenders sell collateral as prices fall toward those thresholds, potentially accelerating deleveraging.
Similarly, IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore said a sustained break below the US$60K zone could open the door to a deeper pullback toward the high US$40K (AU$56.4K). A further dynamic comes from options positioning. If Bitcoin slides toward or below US$60K, traders who sold puts may hedge by selling spot Bitcoin or futures, adding pressure.
A Rough Couple Of Weeks For Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin briefly tested the US$60,000 area on Feb. 6 before recovering. It was trading around US$67K (AU$102K) at the start of the week, down about 47% from its October peak.
The broader reversal began late last year, when more than US$19 billion (AU$29.07 billion) in bullish bets were wiped out, and selling intensified again in early February, erasing post-election gains after Donald Trump’s re-election.
Bearish calls have also increased. Crypto News Australia recently reported that Michael Burry warned of a potential self-reinforcing “death spiral.” Similarly, Standard Chartered cut its end-2026 Bitcoin forecast to US$100K (AU$153K), down from prior projections, and said Bitcoin could fall to US$50K (AU$76.5K) before stabilising.
In crypto-related equities, Coinbase Global shares rose in early trading as investors looked past a fourth-quarter revenue miss, though the stock remains down roughly 50% over the past 12 months.
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