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On-chain data shows Bitcoin activity has seen a major cooldown over the past month. What does history say about what could be next for BTC?
As pointed out by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr. in a new post on X, the 30-day change in the Bitcoin % Supply Active has recently been negative. This on-chain indicator measures, as its name suggests, the percentage of the cryptocurrency’s circulating supply that became involved in some kind of transaction activity over a given period. In the context of the current topic, the time window in question is 180 days.
Below is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the 30-day change of the Bitcoin % Supply Active over the last few years.
From the graph, it’s visible that the 30-day change in Bitcoin % Supply Active shot up to a sharp positive level late last year as BTC’s bull run played out, indicating that a large amount of supply dormant for more than six months started becoming active again. A similar trend was also witnessed in the rally from Q1 2024. This pattern isn’t anything surprising, as activity on the blockchain tends to go up as a rally captures the attention of the masses.
Interestingly, the return above $100,000 earlier in the year couldn’t trigger any such reaction from the sector. And as the price has consolidated above this level since then, the 30-day change has even plummeted deep into the negative zone, suggesting holders have been losing interest.
At present, the metric is sitting at a value of -17%, meaning that 17% less of the 180-day supply is active today compared to a month ago. While this suggests a major cooldown of attention around the network, the development may not be so bad if historical precedent is to go by.
As Adler Jr has highlighted in the chart, the 30-day % Supply Active saw a similar plummet back in September. What followed this market boredom was sharp bullish momentum for Bitcoin.
In the temporary bearish period that came after the May 2021 crash, a similar pattern led into the second half of that year’s bull market. However, the 30-day change didn’t become as negative back then. It now remains to be seen whether anything like in the past would follow for Bitcoin this time as well, or if the cooldown in price and activity is here to stay for a while.
Bitcoin saw a retrace into the low $105,000 levels yesterday, but it appears the asset’s sideways dance remains rigid as its price is already back at $107,200.
