Oracle’s debt risk jumped as its five‑year credit default swaps surged from under 40 to about 120 basis points.
The Bank of England says the global AI spending wave is getting dangerous. The central bank warned that the multi‑trillion‑dollar push into AI infrastructure now leans too hard on debt, while stock prices tied to the sector sit at levels it called “materially stretched.”
The risk is simple. If AI stocks crack, the damage will not stay in tech. It will hit the wider debt market fast.
The UK central bank said on Tuesday that about $5 trillion in total AI spending is expected over the next five years. Right now, much of today’s money still comes from cash held by major tech players known as hyperscalers.
But the bank said around half of that future spending will come from external funding, mainly borrowing. It also flagged early stress in credit default swaps linked to companies using heavy debt to build AI systems.
Stock drops hit wallets and corporate borrowing
In its twice-yearly Financial Stability Report, the Bank of England said a sharp fall in tech shares tied to AI would cut into UK household wealth. That would push down consumer spending. The same move would also hit lenders exposed to firms building AI infrastructure.
The bank said losses on those loans would drive up borrowing costs for companies across the wider market.
This warning adds fuel to the growing talk of an AI bubble. Some analysts now compare today’s surge to the dotcom boom that collapsed in the early 2000s. As prices climb, companies are racing to spend on AI hardware, especially new data centers that power advanced models.
Despite those risks, Andrew Bailey, who leads the Bank of England, said AI firms still show real cash coming in, unlike many early internet startups. He spoke at a press conference in London and said: “They are not created on hope but as we see and we were seeing it last week, I think in the debate is Google moving onto Nvidia’s patch, it doesn’t mean to say everybody’s going to win. It doesn’t mean to say everybody’s going to win equally.”
The central bank also estimated that AI drove two-thirds of all gains in the S&P 500 this year. It said spending tied to the technology also fueled half of the US economic growth in the first half of 2025. The report added: “The financing of AI development is reaching an inflection point. If material credit losses on AI lending were to occur, directly or indirectly, this could have spillovers to broader credit conditions, including in the UK.”
Debt signals flash red across AI financing
The central bank said corporate debt issuance by AI companies has climbed in recent months. It pointed to early warning signs inside the derivatives market. One key example came from Oracle Corp., a major database and cloud firm tied closely to Nvidia.
The bank said: “The five‑year credit default swap spreads of Oracle, an AI company which has lower free cash flow margins than some other larger hyperscalers and has issued a large amount of debt this year to finance AI infrastructure spending, have widened from less than 40 basis points to around 120 basis points since end‑July.”
That move stands apart from the wider US market. Spreads on investment‑grade US corporate debt stayed mostly steady over the same period. Credit default swaps act as insurance against a company failing to repay debt. When prices rise, traders see higher default risk.
Oracle has now turned into a key AI risk barometer. Traders betting against the sector have crowded into its credit‑default swaps as a hedge against a sharp sell‑off. Those trades pay off if AI sentiment cools and default fears rise.
At the center of the current surge sits Nvidia, the chip giant holding the title of the most valuable company on earth with a market value of $4.37 trillion. NVDA’s stock price literally tracks demand for the high‑power processors used to run the most advanced AI models.
Over the past year, Nvidia signed billions of dollars in deals with customers and partners. It also locked in ties with rivals, including Intel Corp. Those deals connected the balance sheets of several major players. The Bank of England said those links now raise fears of a shared AI bubble, where one break could travel fast across stocks, credit, and funding markets.
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