Traders in Accra’s Central Business District say sales ahead of Christmas remain slow and uncertain despite heavy human traffic, raising concerns about consumer spending and broader impacts on businesses and the local economy. Bulk purchases have become rare as shoppers limit spending in line with tight budgets, with customer presence not translating into actual purchases even as the cedi has appreciated and import costs declined.
Ezekiel Osei, a trader in Christmas decorations, said sales had fallen short of expectations but expressed cautious optimism that he would make enough sales before December 25. Esther Awoyaa, a second hand clothing dealer, described business as very poor, noting that even recent price reductions had failed to stimulate demand. She explained that although the cedi had appreciated and the dollar weakened, customers were still holding back, with just two clothes sold two days ago whose proceeds went into food and transport that same day.
Joyce Owusu, another second hand clothing seller, said sales were stronger last Christmas despite higher prices, noting that this year prices are lower and the market is crowded but sales are not coming. A visit to the Central Business District on December 19 revealed bustling streets and crowded stalls, but traders reported that buyers were largely window shopping, reflecting constrained household budgets and cautious consumer behavior. The subdued festive sales point to lingering pressure on household incomes as consumers prioritize essentials such as food, transport and utilities over discretionary spending.
Markets in Makola, Kaneshie, Achimota and Kantamanto have seen longer trading hours and heavier foot traffic as families prepare for the holidays, yet traders say this has not translated into meaningful sales. A Ghanaian Times visit to four major markets on December 18 found crowded walkways and busy stalls particularly for foodstuffs, clothing and household items, but behind the commotion traders reported disappointment as sales volumes lagged behind last year’s Christmas.
At Achimota Market, a bucket of tomatoes that sold between 100 and 120 cedis in early October now sells between 70 and 80 cedis, while a 25 litre container of cooking oil has dropped sharply from 700 to 750 cedis in September to between 500 and 520 cedis. Similarly, a 50 kilogram bag of rice now sells between 700 and 750 cedis, down from 800 to 900 cedis in October. Mary Amededziso, a trader at Achimota, told Ghanaian Times there is no money in the system and people are buying in smaller quantities while being very careful with their spending.
Economists warn this cautious spending pattern could affect small and medium sized enterprises, many of which rely on the Christmas season to recover costs, service loans and restock for the new year. For the broader economy, weak festive sales could translate into slower turnover for informal businesses, reduced cash flow and lower short term tax and levy collections from trading activities. The situation may also dampen expectations of a strong end year boost to economic activity particularly in retail, wholesale and transport sectors.
The weak Christmas sales appear paradoxical given Ghana’s improved macroeconomic indicators throughout 2025. Inflation declined from 23.8 percent in December 2024 to 6.3 percent in November 2025, reaching its lowest level since 2021 and falling below the Bank of Ghana’s target range. The cedi appreciated roughly 35 percent against major currencies this year, supported by higher cocoa and gold export earnings and improved investor confidence. The Bank of Ghana cut its benchmark policy rate from 21.5 percent to 18 percent, marking the first monetary policy loosening after an extended tightening cycle.
Ghana Statistical Service data released on December 10 shows the economy recorded 5.5 percent growth between July and September 2025, but expansion came almost entirely from Ghanaian households whose spending surged 16.9 percent year on year. This growth occurred while government consumption plummeted 16.4 percent, creating what analysts describe as an unsustainable imbalance. Analysts warn that while robust household spending signals consumer confidence, relying almost entirely on private consumption while public sector spending retracts dramatically poses sustainability risks.
The third quarter household spending surge may have depleted savings and exhausted credit facilities for many families, leaving reduced purchasing power heading into December. If household spending power diminishes due to inflation, income pressures or exhaustion of savings, the economy could face significant headwinds with reduced government activity to provide a buffer. The contrast between third quarter household consumption boom and December retail weakness suggests spending may have peaked earlier in the year.
At Kantamanto second hand clothing market, sales of children clothing and other outfits had picked up somewhat, with families opting for lower budget friendly options. Akwesi Ampomah, a bend down boutique seller, said stable bale prices have helped sustain steady patronage despite complaints of low finances by customers. Wholesale markets such as Okaishie and Agbogbloshie are also feeling the squeeze as traders report similar patterns of heavy foot traffic without corresponding sales volumes.
Transport operators serving major markets have reported heavier passenger traffic during early morning and evening hours as traders rush goods in and shoppers try to beat congestion. Market leaders have urged traders to maintain fair pricing and called on local authorities to strengthen security and sanitation as trading stretches late into the night. The extended operating hours reflect trader desperation to capture sales as the December 25 deadline approaches.
December traditionally represents a critical revenue window for many Ghanaian businesses, with some sectors earning up to 40 percent of annual revenue during the festive period. The month combines returning diaspora, tourism, remittances and year end bonuses to create heightened consumer activity across retail, hospitality, entertainment and transport sectors. However, 2025 appears different as the expected consumption boost fails to materialize despite favorable economic conditions.
Mobile money transaction data provides additional evidence of consumer caution. Over February 2025, the volume of mobile money transactions declined to under 700 million following a record high of 745 million transactions in December 2024. Similarly, the value of transactions stood at 316 billion cedis in February 2025, identical to November 2024 but below December 2024 and January 2025 levels. The slowdown in consumer activity followed the presidential election and weaker purchasing power after the December festive season.
Some analysts suggest timing factors may explain the sales weakness. The 2024 general elections held on December 7 created uncertainty that may have prompted consumers to delay major purchases. The transition period following the National Democratic Congress victory over the New Patriotic Party could have contributed to wait and see attitudes among households and businesses. Political transitions historically correlate with temporary spending pauses as citizens assess policy directions.
Consumer behavior research indicates households increase savings and reduce discretionary spending during periods of political change regardless of economic fundamentals. The psychology of regime change affects confidence even when macroeconomic indicators remain positive. Ghana’s December 2024 election represented significant political turnover after eight years of New Patriotic Party governance, potentially triggering conservative spending patterns extending into December 2025.
Employment conditions may also constrain festive spending despite headline economic growth. While aggregate GDP expanded and inflation moderated, job creation has not kept pace with labor force growth. Youth unemployment remains elevated particularly in urban areas where Christmas shopping concentrates. Underemployment affects many workers whose reduced hours and income limit purchasing capacity despite overall economic expansion.
The agricultural sector, which recorded 8.6 percent growth in the third quarter, employs significant portions of Ghana’s workforce but operates largely outside formal wage structures. Farmers and rural workers may not experience income gains as immediately as headline growth statistics suggest. The lag between agricultural production increases and actual income receipt could explain weak urban consumer spending if rural to urban remittances have declined.
Real estate and construction sectors showing recovery may absorb household resources that previously funded Christmas spending. Families investing in property improvements, land purchases or mortgage deposits during 2025 would have less available for festive consumption. The 18 percent year on year increase in cement sales indicating construction activity could reflect household capital allocation toward durable assets rather than immediate consumption.
Interest rate declines from 29 percent to 18 percent have improved access to consumer credit, but banks remain cautious about lending given recent economic instability. Financial institutions may have tightened underwriting standards despite lower policy rates, restricting credit availability for Christmas purchases. High lending rates relative to deposit rates continue squeezing consumer borrowing capacity even as monetary policy eases.
Import dynamics reveal additional complexity. Ghana imported goods worth billions during 2025 as the stronger cedi made foreign products more affordable. Households may have front loaded purchases of durable goods including electronics, appliances and vehicles earlier in the year when exchange rates were most favorable. This consumption timing would leave reduced budgets for traditional December spending on perishables, clothing and entertainment.
Energy sector challenges persist despite improvements in electricity supply stability. Although power outages have decreased compared to 2024, tariff adjustments implemented throughout 2025 increased household utility costs. Higher electricity and water bills absorb income that might otherwise fund discretionary Christmas spending. The cumulative impact of utility cost increases throughout the year may be constraining December budgets.
Food price moderations have benefited households, but protein sources including poultry and fish remain relatively expensive. Live broiler chickens sell at 220 cedis while frozen chicken costs 40 cedis per kilogram, prices that strain budgets for families planning holiday meals. Onion prices between 130 and 160 cedis per paint and other staples maintain elevated levels relative to pre pandemic baselines despite recent declines from peak prices.
Educational expenses typically peak in September as families pay school fees for the new academic year. The concentration of educational spending three months before Christmas may have depleted savings households would otherwise deploy for festive purchases. Private school fees have increased substantially, with some institutions raising costs 20 to 30 percent for the 2024 to 2025 academic year, leaving families with reduced discretionary income in December.
Healthcare costs present another drain on household budgets ahead of Christmas. National Health Insurance Scheme challenges have forced more families toward out of pocket medical expenses. The prevalence of malaria, respiratory infections and other seasonal illnesses during the rainy season from April to November 2025 may have consumed savings intended for Christmas. Unexpected medical expenses often take priority over festive spending.
Debt servicing obligations affect many Ghanaian households following the credit expansion of previous years. Families who borrowed during high inflation periods now face repayment schedules that strain current incomes despite improved macroeconomic conditions. Microfinance institutions and informal lenders maintain aggressive collection practices that may be diverting household cash flows from consumption toward debt retirement.
Currency appreciation benefits have not distributed evenly across income groups. While import dependent businesses and consumers gained from the stronger cedi, workers in export oriented sectors including cocoa farming may have experienced reduced cedi receipts when dollar earnings convert at less favorable rates. The redistribution effects of exchange rate movements create winners and losers among different household segments.
Remittance inflows from the diaspora, which historically exceed four billion dollars annually, may have moderated in 2025 despite Detty December expectations. Global economic conditions including inflation in key diaspora markets such as the United States and United Kingdom could have reduced Ghanaians abroad’s capacity to send money home. Employment challenges in destination countries may have constrained remittance volumes that typically boost December spending.
Traders remain hopeful that sales will improve in the days leading up to December 25 as last minute shopping traditionally peaks closer to Christmas Day. Many say a pickup in consumer confidence and disposable income will be critical to sustaining small businesses and supporting economic activity during the festive period and beyond. Historical patterns show concentration of purchases in the final week before Christmas as families delay spending until absolutely necessary.
Weather conditions could influence late December shopping patterns. If rainfall continues, transportation difficulties may discourage market visits and concentrate purchases at neighborhood shops charging premium prices. Conversely, favorable weather in the final days before Christmas might trigger the anticipated surge that traders hope will salvage the season. Market dynamics remain fluid with potential for rapid changes in the countdown to December 25.
The divergence between macroeconomic improvement and microeconomic retail weakness illustrates limitations of aggregate statistics in capturing household realities. While GDP growth, inflation moderation and currency appreciation represent positive developments, individual family circumstances vary widely. Income distribution matters as much as aggregate income growth for determining consumption patterns. The benefits of Ghana’s 2025 economic recovery may have concentrated among higher income groups with limited trickle down to mass market consumers.
Policymakers face challenges interpreting the weak Christmas sales signal. If retail weakness reflects temporary timing factors, no intervention may be necessary as spending normalizes in 2026. However, if fundamental household financial stress explains the pattern, authorities may need to consider measures supporting consumer purchasing power including tax relief, credit access improvements or social protection program expansions. Distinguishing between cyclical and structural factors requires careful analysis.
The Ghana Statistical Service will release December retail data and fourth quarter GDP figures in coming months, providing clearer pictures of how festive season consumption evolved. Early indicators from market visits and trader interviews suggest significant weakness, but comprehensive data will determine whether the pattern persisted through month end or reversed in final days before Christmas. The outcomes will influence economic forecasts and policy discussions heading into 2026.
For small and medium enterprises heavily dependent on December revenues, the weak sales environment threatens financial sustainability. Many traders borrowed capital to stock inventories expecting robust Christmas demand that has not materialized. Unsold inventory represents sunk costs and tied up capital that cannot be deployed productively. If goods remain unsold after Christmas, traders face difficult decisions about discounting versus carrying costs into the new year.
The broader implications extend to government revenue mobilization as weak retail activity translates into lower value added tax collections. Informal sector contributions to government coffers depend heavily on transaction volumes and values. Reduced Christmas trading diminishes the fiscal boost authorities typically expect from festive season economic activity. Revenue shortfalls could complicate budget execution in early 2026 if December collections disappoint expectations.
Ghana’s economic recovery remains fragile despite positive headline indicators throughout 2025. The disconnect between improved macroeconomic fundamentals and weak Christmas retail performance highlights implementation gaps and distribution challenges. Sustainable growth requires broad based improvements in household purchasing power extending beyond aggregate statistics to individual family economic security. The weak December sales serve as a cautionary indicator about the uneven nature of Ghana’s post crisis recovery.
