Former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has returned to lead the Democrat Party at one of the most difficult times in its history, with questions being raised as to whether the oldest political party can reclaim lost ground after years of decline and internal rifts before the next election.
In recent years, the Democrats’ traditional support base in the southern provinces and parts of Bangkok has shrunk while voters with liberal and centric leanings have turned to the People’s Party (PP), Bhumjaithai (BJT) and Pheu Thai.
The party’s new party executive committee, elected recently when Mr Abhisit also took on the leader’s mantle, comprises a mix of veteran politicians and younger members.
It represents a transparent bid to reconnect with voters in all walks of life.
The Bangkok Post spoke to political scientists and Democrat insiders to examine what Mr Abhisit’s return means for the party’s future.
The best option
Wanwichit Boonprong, a lecturer at Rangsit University’s faculty of political science, said no other figure possesses the same legitimacy or recognition as Mr Abhisit. The Democrats, he said, have been weakened by leadership crises and defections.
Mr Abhisit’s comeback has shifted the Democrats’ image from a baan yai (political family) network back towards a liberal democratic identity once again. Although his return has prompted the return of several veterans who previously left the party, that alone is unlikely to restore its former strength.
Part of the conservative voter base that turned to parties such as United Thai Nation (UTN) and even BJT may return to the Democrats, but not entirely. “Those who vote Democrat now are likely to do so out of personal admiration for Mr Abhisit rather than party loyalty or ideology,” he said.
The Democrats can no longer rely on being a regional powerhouse in the South, as their traditional stronghold has splintered among BJT, Klatham and other parties, he said, adding the party may see slight gains in party-list votes, but their constituency performance will require more groundwork.
Mr Wanwichit doubted that a new generation of members can help attract young voters as this group has “little positive memory” of Mr Abhisit’s premiership and some still associate his tenure with political unrest.
Democrat patriarch Chuan Leekpai, once a symbol of the party’s southern strength, is unlikely to help revive its appeal, said the analyst. Mr Chuan played a limited role during the years when the party was heavily influenced by local factions.
“Many now see him as staying on only to preserve principle, rather than to help with a broader direction,” Mr Wanwichit added.
An uphill battle
Mr Abhisit has returned to the helm at a time when the Democrat Party’s popularity was at one of its lowest points.
The party won only 25 seats in the 2023 general election, including three from the party list. Most of its constituency MPs relied on support from local political families rather than the party’s own popularity.
The Democrats’ party-list vote fell sharply from 3.9 million in 2019 to 900,000 in 2023, with about three million former supporters believed to have switched to the Move Forward Party, predecessor of the PP.
In the 2011 general election, the Democrats secured 11 million votes, but about 8 million out of these votes were believed to have gone to the Palang Pracharath Party which supported Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha. Other liberal conservatives remained with the Democrats.
In the 2023 polls, many conservative voters drifted away from the UTN, which also featured Gen Prayut, resulting in a loss of more than four million votes for the UTN. The data suggested most of those votes moved to the PP, the only party to gain significantly.
Political scientist Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket of the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida) said the Democrats will find it difficult to win back liberal voters, who now have a stronger alternative in the PP.
The Democrats’ best opportunity lies with ‘soft conservatives’ — voters and traditional conservatives who are reluctant to support BJT, a party often associated with patronage-based politics, he said.
Mr Phichai predicted the party could win about 20 seats in the next election from southern constituencies and the party-list system.
Asked whether the new faces introduced by the Democrat Party could help attract younger voters, Mr Phichai said polling data suggested otherwise.
According to a Nida Poll, support among younger voters for the Democrats is almost non-existent, at only 1-2%. “Winning over the youth vote will be nearly impossible. The party’s appeal is limited to working-age voters aged 45 and above,” he said.
Faith in Abhisit’s integrity
Democrat veteran Sathit Wongnongtoey said Mr Abhisit’s return represents a revival of the party’s ideology since the party was established in 1946, which emphasises clean politics free from financial influence.
When money becomes the main driver of elections, it inevitably leads to corruption, which has become a deep-rooted disease in society, he said.
The party leader prioritises sustainability over short-term success and the party’s strength lies in its combination of experienced figures and new-generation members who have ever faced corruption allegations, he said.
“I believe our three key strengths are clear ideology, clean politics with a strong anti-corruption stance and sustainable policy goals.
“The experience of senior members, combined with the fresh knowledge of the new generation, particularly in areas such as digital asset economics and international trade, will set the Democrats apart from other parties in the next election,” he said.
Thai politics remains divided between three major camps — the red camp (Pheu Thai), orange camp (PP) and blue camp (BJT) — each of which has their own weaknesses.
The Democrats aim to stand as a credible “fourth option” beyond the existing colour-based politics, Mr Sathit said. He stressed Mr Abhisit’s commitment to steer clear of political conflicts involving the monarchy and reject any exploitation of the military and his record of accountability.
Young team makes mark
Rudklao Intawong Suwankiri, a mid-generation member of the Democrat Party, said Mr Abhisit’s first major step after returning to the helm was to form a new executive board that includes younger members, breaking with the party’s long-standing traditions that only long-serving MPs could rise to leadership.
“The new generation is not defined by age only but by mindset and perspective… These members now have an opportunity to serve at the executive level and take part in actual policy work, unlike some other parties that claim to represent young people but still operate under a traditional top-down structure,” she said.
She said the party aims to craft policies that resonate with younger voters but are misunderstood by the state, such as the emerging video gaming industry.
She added the party has recruited professionals from outside politics to strengthen its expertise which will offer an alternative for voters who feel trapped. “The party’s new generation aims to combine passion with professionalism — compromise over confrontation… We’re ready to embrace differences and learn from diverse perspectives. We won’t be the kind that refuses to compromise and, in the end, fail to make real progress,” she said.
