Zcash (ZEC) continues to outperform a weak crypto market, rising over 17% in the past 24 hours and about 178% over the past month. While most altcoins are under pressure, the ZEC price has kept climbing after confirming a flag breakout on October 24. Since then, it has hit each target one by one, recently breaking above $438. The next big target now lies at $594, with an extended projection aimed higher.
Still, after such a sharp rise, signs are building that bulls may soon face their first real test.
Derivatives Data Shows Rising Risk of Long Liquidations
Open interest in Zcash futures — the total amount of open derivative contracts — has surged to a six-month high of $337 million, matching last October’s peak. This shows aggressive leverage building across exchanges, with traders mostly betting long.
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On Binance alone, long liquidations now total $30.27 million, nearly three times more than shorts at $12.43 million. That means most short positions have already been cleared out, leaving the market heavily tilted toward longs.
Such imbalances can make the rally fragile. Even a small drop can trigger long liquidations and cascade into a Zcash price pullback. If ZEC slips below $450, a short correction could start. A fall under $342, which aligns with a key Fibonacci level (explained later), would trigger all the long liquidations on the 7-day timeframe. That kind of long squeeze could finally hurt the ZEC price.
Bearish Divergence Warns That Bulls Could Finally Pause
Since October 11, ZEC’s price has made higher highs, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — which tracks momentum — has been forming lower highs. This is known as a bearish divergence, and it often signals that upward momentum is losing steam.
This divergence has persisted for a while now, even as prices have continued to climb. RSI would need to rise above 86 to cancel out this setup, but that level also marks overbought territory, where rallies often slow down as traders take profit.
When combined with ZEC’s overheated derivative positioning, this RSI setup suggests that the next pullback — even if brief — could finally make bulls yield, at least temporarily, before the next leg higher.
Money Flow and ZEC Price Action Still Back the Bulls
Despite these risks, large spot wallet inflows remain strong. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) — which measures how much money is entering or leaving the token — stands at 0.13, confirming positive inflows. A move above 0.14 would show growing buyer dominance, and a break over 0.24 would likely mark aggressive whale accumulation.
