After surging more than 300% and reaching a four-year high of $296.9, Zcash (ZEC) has retraced roughly 25%, now trading around $222.8 as of the afternoon of Oct. 14 (Asia time). Despite the sharp pullback, the token remains up 47% over the past week and sits nearly 650% above its year-to-date low.
ZEC’s recent rally was fueled by renewed concerns over blockchain surveillance and government oversight, which have reignited interest in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies.
Additional momentum came after Grayscale announced plans to launch a new investment fund tracking Zcash. While the company hasn’t confirmed it, many market participants believe Grayscale could consider converting the fund into an exchange-traded product (ETP) if investor demand continues to climb.
Zcash’s price also benefited from a broader crypto market upswing as the industry entered the historically strong fourth quarter, often regarded as the most profitable period for digital assets.
Why is Zcash falling?
After hitting a four-year high on Sunday, ZEC failed to break above the $300 resistance, prompting a sharp pullback as market sentiment turned cautious. The downturn followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new round of tariffs on all Chinese imports, reigniting global trade tensions.
The escalation triggered marketwide fear, pushing the crypto market into an extreme fear zone and causing over $20 billion in liquidations across the sector.
While U.S. officials have indicated that talks with China remain possible before the Nov. 1 tariff deadline, the outlook remains tense amid reports that the trade conflict could expand to include commercial port fees on shipping vessels from both nations.
Meanwhile, investors are also adopting a wait-and-see stance ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the National Association for Business Economics conference in Philadelphia. Traders are hoping for insights into the Fed’s potential rate-cut timeline and its strategy for managing stubborn inflation and slowing global growth. Any hint of a hawkish or dovish shift could send ripples through both traditional and crypto markets.
Zcash price analysis
On the daily chart, ZEC has fallen below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, measured from the Sept. 23 low to the Oct. 12 peak. This breakdown signals waning bullish momentum and suggests the potential for a deeper correction if bearish pressure continues to build.
Zcash is also nearing a descending trendline that has served as a strong dynamic support throughout October. A decisive break below this line could open the door for a deeper downside move, particularly if accompanied by increasing trading volume.
Technical indicators further highlight the bearish sentiment dominating the market. The Aroon Down indicator has surged to 100%, while the Aroon Up has fallen to 0% — a classic signal of a strong downtrend and the absence of recent bullish momentum. Similarly, the MACD has formed a bearish crossover, with momentum steadily fading from overbought levels toward neutral territory as of press time.
At present, the $200 level stands out as the key support to watch, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A confirmed breakdown below this zone could pave the way for further declines, with the next significant support near $170, around the 50% retracement level.
However, the weekly liquidation heatmap shows a dense cluster of long liquidations between $210 and $200, indicating that buyers may attempt to defend this range to prevent a steeper selloff. This area also coincides with the descending support trendline on the daily chart, reinforcing its role as a crucial short-term floor for ZEC’s price.
If ZEC fails to hold above the $200 support, liquidity appears to thin significantly until around $180, where the next liquidation cluster begins to form. A drop into this zone could trigger another wave of stop-loss activations and forced selling, potentially extending the correction before the market stabilizes.
Conversely, a decisive move above $242.46 could signal the start of a bullish reversal, indicating renewed buying momentum. In that scenario, Zcash may break out of its current downtrend and target a short-term retest of the $270–$290 range, where the next key resistance levels reside.
