Zcash’s blistering ~4,000% run off its 2024 lows has likely already delivered “most of that rally”.
Crypto analyst and Elliott Wave trader (speaking on a recent weekly Zcash update) says the privacy coin’s explosive move from its 2024 lows has probably already delivered the bulk of its upside — and now sits in a zone where risk is rising faster than potential reward.
The analyst, who only began covering Zcash (ZEC) this cycle after community requests, stressed that he treats the coin strictly as a speculative trading chart, not an investment. Altcoins in general, he argued, “are not investment assets,” but positions he would size as if they could “basically go to zero.”
Range-High Territory After ~4,000% Yearly ZEC Move
On the weekly chart, ZEC has spent years oscillating in a broad range dating back to 2017. Price is now pushing up against the upper boundary of that range, an area he describes as “key resistance.”
Measured from the July 2024 low, Zcash has rallied roughly 4,000%. To repeat that, he noted, the coin would need to climb to around $22,000 — something he doesn’t rule out in theory, but clearly frames as unlikely relative to the risk.
“The reward-to-risk profile is not really positive anymore,” he said, warning that traders buying this high in the range are likely catching “most of that rally already done.”
The $800 area is identified as a strong resistance zone on the chart, with short-term resistance coming in around $588 and $620. “I’d be cautious the closer we get there,” he added.
Wave 4, Extended Corrections, and Pain Below Support
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the current pullback is being interpreted as a wave 4 correction that “might still stretch out.” He pointed to this cycle’s repeated pattern of fourth waves that start small, then morph into extended, grinding structures that eventually break support.
In earlier altcoin rallies, he said, many charts looked promising in mid-cycle only to spend a year correcting after losing key levels. For ZEC, the nearest major support he’s willing to use is a wide band between $136 and $335 — far below current prices.
Short-term, the December swing low at $304 is the first “very short-term key level,” but setting stops there risks being whipsawed if the market builds a larger, more complex wave 4.
On the lower time frames, the decline so far looks like a three‑wave corrective move rather than a completed top, so he still “keeps the door open for higher” — either directly or after further consolidation. “There’s nothing telling me at this point that we have formed a major top,” he said, but every move deeper into resistance increases risk.
For traders and funds eyeing Zcash, the message is blunt: treat it as a high‑beta swing vehicle, not a core holding, and size positions around the possibility that the coin could retrace toward that distant support band if the current range finally breaks down.
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