For now, insiders do not appear to hold outsized positions, but may sit on significant gains if their tokens resolve to 100%.
ZachXBT admits he may have disclosed privileged information during the interview portion of his findings after teasing an investigation dropping on February 26. Users have been betting on Polymarket about which crypto platform will be mentioned in the investigation.
On-chain investigator ZachXBT may have caused another round of insider trading. Previously, ZachXBT announced he would drop new research on a platform with notable examples of insider trading.
Based on Polymarket bets, the most probable candidate remains Meteora, the Solana DEX.
ZachXBT stated he was probably one of the reasons for the leak, as he had to interview representatives and experts.
While this is not the first time the on-chain sleuth has teased a report, the prominence of prediction markets has contributed to his latest investigation announcement going viral.
According to ZachXBT, this is the first teaser to go viral and spark a Polymarket pair.
Based on the updated prediction activity, Meteora is still the leader with odds of 47%. The odds remain relatively unchanged, but are still inconclusive. The actual investigation will launch tomorrow, and ZachXBT has not yet given more hints of the real platform.
The presence of a market means the company may bet against the odds if it is certain of the investigation. Since there is no explicit standard in the crypto space, multiple platforms were suggested as probably being the object of investigation.
As of February 25, accounts flagged as potential insiders have also been betting on alternatives to Meteora. One trader bought ‘yes’ shares for Axiom, the non-custodial DeFi trading platform. The account even came back for more ‘yes’ shares.
Within a day, the mentions of the Polymarket prediction expanded their mindshare on social media. Trading volumes increased from around $5M to over $14M. The market climbed to the second spot on the Polymarket trending page.
Following speculation about Meteora insider activity, MET recovered to $0.17. Currently, only one whale is shorting MET through Hyperliquid. The whale uses the same address to make predictions on short-term crypto directional trading through Polymarket.
Other than the initial panic, there is not much data to suggest future headwinds for Meteora. The exchange remains a relatively liquid DEX for meme tokens and SOL swaps, as well as a hub for trading against USDC.
One of the former whales that shorted MET in the first day after the market launch already closed the position. The whale still holds around $6,515.15 in ‘yes’ shares for Meteora.
Despite the speculations of insider trading, for now, there are no entities with outsized bets. The top holder of ‘yes’ shares holds 53,015 tokens on Meteora, while the counter-trader holds 84,670 ‘no’ tokens.
Currently, the market is made up of smaller traders, though the viral status of the market is boosting the volumes. Insiders themselves are not holding outsized positions, but other traders are tracking their decision and boosting the odds of Meteora.
