According to the XTI/USD chart, WTI crude oil has fallen below $57, approaching its 2025 low near $55. The recent weakness in oil prices can be attributed to several key factors:
→ Ongoing uncertainty over the US-China trade agreement — as the world’s largest consumers of crude, any strain between the two nations heightens concerns about slower global growth and reduced energy demand.
→ Rising OPEC+ production levels, which have prompted the International Energy Agency (IEA) to revise its forecast for an oil surplus upward.
→ A diminished geopolitical risk premium following the recent peace accord in the Middle East, which has eased fears of potential supply disruptions.
These developments have left traders questioning whether the current downtrend has further to run.
Technical Overview: XTI/USD
A week ago, we highlighted that:
→ From a broader perspective, the price of crude has been tracing out a descending channel (marked in red) since the post-escalation correction in June. The price has now slipped below the lower boundary of this channel — a sign of renewed bearish pressure.
→ Short-term dynamics indicate an acceleration in the sell-off, illustrated by the purple path lines on the chart.
Our earlier projection of a drift towards the $55 support area has largely played out. However, the chart now suggests that downside momentum could soon fade:
→ The RSI indicator is hovering near oversold territory, implying that selling pressure may be losing strength.
→ A Falling Wedge formation has emerged — a classical reversal pattern that often precedes a recovery.
Given these conditions, it is plausible that after a 10% monthly decline, sellers may begin taking profits, triggering a rebound in WTI. A corrective rise could target the $60 region, where several resistance levels converge, including:
→ The lower boundary of the red channel;
→ The psychological $60 mark;
→ The median line of the purple channel.
Overall, while the medium-term trend remains bearish, technical signals suggest that a short-term rebound may soon develop as oversold conditions invite renewed buying interest.
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