An XRP-focused technical analyst has just warned that the token is stuck in a fragile mid-range structure, with a narrow resistance band likely to decide whether the current move becomes a full bullish breakout or a deeper correction.
In his latest video update, the trader — known for Elliott Wave-driven XRP coverage and longer-term roadmaps out to 2026 — said the market is “consolidating” after a brief burst of volatility, with Friday’s session described as “very muted.”
Notably, the focus now is on whether XRP coin can complete a five-wave advance on the daily chart or slip back into an extended corrective pattern.
Key XRP Price Levels: Resistance First, Breakout Later
On the daily time-frame, the analyst is working with a potential larger-degree Wave 4 low set in October, followed by what he sees as a 1-2 setup off that base. Crucially, the Wave 2 pullback respected the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement around $1.76-$1.77, which he calls “always important” to hold. Other analysts, such as X Force Global, second this opinion.
XRP coin has only managed “three waves up” so far, failing to convincingly clear prior swing highs. The key resistance zone is marked between roughly $2.69 and $2.84.
So, a sustained break above that area, alongside a completed five-wave structure and a higher high above the 6 January peak at $2.42, would be the first strong confirmation that a new impulsive leg toward potential all-time highs is underway.
Without that follow-through, another low would make the whole structure more complex, increasing the risk that the larger Wave 4 correction is not finished. In that case, the technical analysis based on Elliott Waves reserves room for a drop toward $1.21-$1.55.
Short-Term Price Direction: All Eyes On $2.19-$2.34
Zooming into the lower time-frames, the More Crypto Online describes the structure as “really messy.”
Since bottoming again near the 78.6% retracement around $1.76 on 18 December, XRP Ledger’s native crypto currency has printed three waves up and three waves down, keeping the door open for one more high — but only if the next decline remains corrective rather than impulsive.
The immediate “decision zone” is $2.19-$2.34. A break above that band would likely complete a fifth wave and offer the “first really bullish confirmation” in the short term.
Until then, he expects a possible rejection from that resistance and is “watching for a move into resistance” over the weekend rather than a clean breakout.
If the move into $2.19-$2.34 turns out to be a B-wave within a complex downside pattern, he warns XRP could slide to around $1.68 or lower before attempting another meaningful upside push. Volume and momentum heading into and out of that resistance area are, in his view, the key tell.
For now, XRP appears to be trying to form a local low, but with “not a lot of upside momentum,” suggesting weekend price action could remain subdued unless a clear five-wave push materializes.
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