The XRP/USD pair continues to trade within a medium-term sideways range between 3.1250 and 2.7344 (Murray [4/8]-[2/8]). Last week, the pair tested the upper boundary following the start of the U.S. government shutdown but later rolled back, currently hovering near 2.8320 (Murray [1/8]).
So far, XRP’s monthly performance remains modest as investors favor Bitcoin and Ethereum amid ETF inflows and U.S. political uncertainty. The latest correction reflects profit-taking and mixed expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s next move.
While ADP employment data pointed to cooling labor conditions, Fed officials remain divided: some advocate for further rate cuts, while others warn inflation is still too high. The lack of new macro data due to the government shutdown adds further uncertainty.
Additional pressure also stems from Ripple’s unresolved banking license application, which missed its decision deadline without public comment. Despite short-term weakness, investor interest in crypto remains strong: capital inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continue, and the Fear & Greed Index sits at a bullish 60. Analysts note a steady outflow of tokens from exchanges — a trend often preceding price rebounds.
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Support and Resistance Levels
XRP remains trapped between 3.1250 and 2.7344. A confirmed break below 2.7344 could extend the decline toward 2.5391 (Murray [-2/8]). Conversely, holding this level may trigger a rebound toward 3.1250 and 3.3203 (Murray [6/8]).
* Resistance: 2.9297, 3.1250, 3.3203
* Support: 2.7344, 2.5391
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Technical Outlook
Bollinger Bands remain flat, signaling consolidation. The MACD is flat near the zero line, showing weak momentum, while the Stochastic oscillator is heading downward but nearing the oversold zone, hinting at possible short-term recovery.
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Trading Scenarios
The main bullish setup suggests entering long positions after a reversal near 2.7344 or a breakout above 2.9297. Targets are set at 3.1250 and 3.3203, with stop-losses at 2.6200 and 2.8470, respectively.
If buyers regain control near support, the pair could once again retest the upper boundary of the range. The overall bias remains neutral-to-bullish while XRP trades above 2.73.
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Outlook:
XRP is consolidating inside a horizontal corridor. A sustained breakout above 2.93 could ignite a short-term rally, while a fall below 2.73 would expose the next support near 2.54.
