The odds of U.S. SEC approval for several crypto spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including XRP, Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE), are climbing rapidly. Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas now estimate a 90% or higher chance of approval for most pending crypto ETF applications. According to Seyffart, growing engagement from the SEC is “a very positive sign,” indicating a more cooperative regulatory stance.
Crypto assets such as Litecoin (LTC), Cardano (ADA), XRP, SOL, and DOGE are now viewed as strong ETF candidates. These optimistic projections follow the SEC’s increased feedback on 19b-4 filings and amendments to S-1 registration forms, signaling serious consideration rather than outright dismissal. Analysts interpret this back-and-forth as a shift in the SEC’s tone, reflecting a willingness to work with fund issuers rather than obstruct them.
However, not all tokens are on equal footing. SUI, which has only one ETF application filed by Canary, currently holds just a 60% approval likelihood due to limited regulatory clarity and the absence of a futures market.
Crypto prediction market Polymarket mirrors Bloomberg’s outlook. Traders give a 98% probability that an XRP ETF is approved in 2025, with a 91% chance for SOL and 71% for DOGE. These bets highlight mounting investor confidence that spot crypto ETFs will expand beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum in the near future.
If approved, these ETFs could unlock broader institutional exposure and legitimize more altcoins in the eyes of traditional investors. With deadlines approaching, market participants are closely watching the SEC’s next moves, anticipating what could be a landmark shift for the digital asset industry.
