XRP (XRP) has been trending downward for the past eight months, with both momentum and onchain indicators reaching levels that have historically aligned with major market bottoms.
According to TradingView data, the relative strength index (RSI) for the XRP/BTC pair has dropped to 24—its most oversold reading since October 2025.
Historically, such deeply oversold RSI levels have signaled bottoms for the pair, often followed by significant rallies ranging from 65% to 345% against Bitcoin, as seen in late 2024 and throughout 2025.
The chart also indicates that the XRP/BTC pair is currently trading within a prolonged consolidation range—a zone that has historically served as a strong springboard for upward moves.
The last time XRP found a bottom against Bitcoin in this range was in June 2025, which triggered a 61% rise in the XRP/BTC ratio alongside a 92% surge in XRP’s price to a multi-year high of $3.66.
Additional instances, highlighted by yellow bars on the chart, further support the reliability of this range as a key indicator of macro bottoms for the XRP/BTC pair.
MVRV Z-score points to potential bottom
XRP’s MVRV Z-score is currently hovering near zero, a level that has historically совпided with accumulation phases and market bottoms.
This suggests that most holders are near their breakeven point, which tends to reduce selling pressure and signal that downside momentum may be fading. Similar conditions were observed ahead of major rallies in 2021, 2022, and 2024.
Notably, the last time XRP’s MVRV Z-score dropped to similar levels in late 2024, it совпided with a macro bottom near $0.30 and was followed by a multi-month rally, during which the XRP/USD pair surged 500% to a multi-year high above $3.
At the same time, the 0.80 MVRV pricing band—historically associated with cycle bottoms—is currently positioned at $1.14, aligning with the 15-month low recorded on Feb. 6.
These onchain indicators suggest XRP may be undervalued, supporting the case for a continued recovery with potential upside toward $1.70 or higher.
XRP must hold above $1.30
At the same time, XRP/USD maintains a cautiously bullish outlook as long as it stays above the $1.25–$1.30 support range.
“$XRP has been holding the key support zone between $1.30 and $1.25 since early February 2026,” trader ChiefraT noted in a post on X on Friday, adding:
“If this zone continues to hold, then a short-term bounce towards $1.45 can’t be ruled out.”
The importance of this support level is reinforced by cost basis distribution. The heatmap below shows that nearly 1.73 billion XRP were acquired around this price.
Below that level, the next key support lies in the $1.15 demand zone, which aligns with the 200-week simple moving average.
A breakdown beneath this area could trigger a sharp decline, potentially sending XRP/USD into a drop toward the bear flag’s measured target near $0.80—about 41% below current levels.
