XRP price analysis: XRP’s long stretch of sideways trading is starting to show cracks, as fresh on-chain data points to growing stress among holders and a market mood that looks increasingly similar to the downturn of 2022, as per a report.
The token has been range-bound for months and is now trading more than 60% below its all-time high. Behind the relatively calm price action, however, blockchain indicators suggest investors are growing uneasy.
One of the clearest signs is a rise in exchange inflows, where large amounts of XRP are being moved onto trading platforms, behavior that often signals preparation to sell rather than long-term holding.
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A key metric capturing this shift is the Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, which tracks whether investors are moving XRP at a profit or a loss, as per a CCN report. When SOPR stays above 1, it reflects confidence and profitable selling. When it drops below 1, it signals that holders are realizing losses, often during periods of panic or capitulation.
According to Glassnode, XRP’s SOPR slid from 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96 in early February 2026. That move below the critical threshold suggests that, on average, holders are now selling at a loss. Glassnode described the trend as “triggered panic selling,” driven by broader market pressures rather than isolated XRP-specific events.
Another data point reinforcing the cautious tone is XRP’s realized price, which currently sits at $1.48. This level closely matches April 2022, a period when XRP also struggled under bearish conditions. The similarity points to the possibility of a drawn-out consolidation phase before meaningful accumulation resumes.
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Price action over recent weeks reflects that strain. As of February 10, 2026, XRP is trading around $1.44, showing only a marginal daily gain of 0.16%. That stability masks deeper losses, including a sharp slide from $1.65 on January 31 to a low of $1.29 by February 5, a 16% drop in just one day that coincided with a 7% decline in Bitcoin.
The move lower unfolded alongside broader weakness across the crypto market, with Ethereum and Solana also under pressure, and was intensified by more than $46 million in XRP derivatives liquidations. Over the past week, XRP has fallen about 3.1%, while losses over the last month are approaching 10.6% from January highs above $2.40.
Seasonal patterns are adding to the pressure. February has historically been a difficult month for XRP, delivering median returns of -8.12% and average declines of around -5%. This year has followed that trend, with the token dropping more than 6% in the first two days of the month alone.
Several ongoing factors are weighing on sentiment. Ripple’s routine monthly release of 1 billion XRP from escrow continues to add perceived supply pressure in a risk-off environment. Exchange balances have climbed, hinting at the potential for further selling, while more than $1.3 billion in ETF inflows so far this year have failed to offset the broader macro uncertainty weighing on prices.
Views on XRP’s outlook remain sharply split. Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick sees a path to $8 by year-end, citing regulatory clarity and institutional adoption. CryptoNinjas projects a wider $5 to $15 range, shaped by bank partnerships and Bitcoin halving cycles, while noting that a $100 price remains highly speculative, as per the CCN report. Changelly offers a more measured forecast, expecting prices between $3.18 and $3.49, supported by gradual growth through DeFi integration.
Ripple CTO David Schwartz has been more restrained in his expectations. He has said he does not foresee XRP reaching $50 to $100 in the near term, stressing that such valuations would require extreme shifts in adoption and liquidity.
Schwartz has also emphasized that XRP’s price is secondary to its utility in payments and that broader crypto market dynamics, rather than Ripple’s escrow releases or holdings, play the dominant role in shaping price movements, as per the CCN report.
Why is XRP under pressure despite stable price action?
On-chain data shows rising exchange inflows and holders selling at a loss, signaling growing stress beneath the surface.
What does SOPR below 1 mean for XRP holders?
It indicates that XRP is being sold at a loss, often during panic or capitulation phases.
