SEC review of ETF filings added potential fundamental support for the token.
XRP price consolidated near $2.8 after marginal movement over the previous day, with analysts tracking a potential breakout above $3.3. They said this threshold could open the way toward medium-term and long-term targets if established technical structures held.
At press time, XRP traded around $2.8, near the flatline over the previous 24 hours. The token declined about 6% over the past week and nearly 7% over the past month.
Analysts described this retracement as a consolidation phase rather than a breakdown.
A well-followed analyst using the name Dark Defender posted research titled The Masterpiece 11. He said XRP followed its long-term technical structure and could be preparing for a decisive move.
In his view, the $3.3 mark was the level that could determine the next leg of the cycle.
He connected the outlook to Elliott Wave theory, a framework that modeled investor crowd behavior in repeating cycles. According to his interpretation, XRP completed a corrective cycle earlier in 2025.
He said the token remained in Wave 2, a sideways accumulation stage, but would enter Wave 3 once momentum shifted.
Wave 3 is often considered the strongest impulse in Elliott Wave patterns. Dark Defender said this could lift the Ripple price toward $5.9 before extending to double-digit levels if the structure held.
Dark Defender used Fibonacci extensions to identify price targets. Fibonacci extensions are ratios based on mathematical sequences that traders often use to forecast potential resistance or support zones.
The first extension, the 161.8% level near $1.9, was already reached earlier in 2025. The next zone, the 270.2% level at $3.35, aligned with the breakout threshold currently being tested.
If XRP established momentum beyond that level, the 261.8% extension projected a medium-term target at $5.9. Longer-term projections from the 361.8% extension placed possible resistance near $18.2.
These levels mirrored XRP’s historical trading structure. The token often consolidated for long stretches before delivering strong upward phases. Analysts said the current setup carried similar characteristics.
Analysts also noted that external factors could reinforce the technical outlook. Ripple-related developments continued to attract attention, particularly around the possibility of exchange-traded funds.
Reports indicated that the US Securities and Exchange Commission reviewed more than 90 applications tied to XRP. If approved, ETFs could expand access to the asset, increase liquidity, and attract institutional investors.
Approval of leveraged XRP futures ETFs already occurred in recent weeks. Analysts said this marked a milestone for market access and reflected rising interest in structured XRP products.
The wider market environment also offered potential support. Bitcoin traded in a projected range between $135,000 and $195,000 during the current cycle, analysts said.
Historically, strong Bitcoin performance often created favorable conditions for large altcoins such as XRP price.
Analysts said a firm close above $3.3 would likely lead XRP price to retest the recent local high near $3.7. Clearing that zone could trigger a new price discovery phase.
Projections for 2025 clustered around $5.9 in the medium term, with longer-term Elliott Wave structures pointing toward $10 or higher. These scenarios assumed supportive regulation, stable macro conditions, and continued market demand.
At the same time, analysts noted that unresolved legal issues and broader market volatility remained risks. Price targets were contingent on technical confirmation and external catalysts aligning.
For now, the focus stayed on the $3.3 breakout line. Whether XRP price establishes that level as new support would help define its trajectory for the rest of the cycle.
Read more on The Coin Republic
