The final decision deadlines for the 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, Coinshares, Grayscale, and WisdomTree ETFs are between October 18 and October 25. The recently delayed Franklin XRP-spot ETF final decision deadline is November 14. Notably, the SEC must make a definitive decision to approve or deny by these dates, with no further extensions as an option.
The buzz surrounding XRP-spot ETFs overshadowed news of a delay to the REX-Osprey XRP ETF launch on Friday, September 12. The REX-Osprey XRP ETF, a first XRP ETF for the US market, is now scheduled to launch on September 18 after completing the SEC’s 75-day review period with no objection raised.
Why is the REX-Osprey XRP ETF launching before older applications?
Unlike the pending XRP-spot ETF applications, the REX-Osprey XRP ETF will adopt a hybrid structure — combining spot, other ETFs, and potentially derivatives if needed.
Market Reaction and BlackRock Speculation
Market buzz around XRP-spot ETFs drove XRP to $3.1395, its highest level since August 14. However, the token continued to trade below its July 18 record high of $3.66 (Binance).
A potential price catalyst could be BlackRock (BLK) applying for an iShares XRP ETF. The ETF issuer has dominated the BTC-spot and ETH-spot ETF markets, driving BTC to its record high of $123,731 (August 14). An iShares XRP ETF and similar institutional demand could send XRP to new highs.
For context, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) have reported total net inflows of $59.5 billion and $12.72 billion since launch.
Price Action & Technical Analysis: $3.33 in View
XRP rallied 2.23% on Friday, September 12, following Thursday’s 1.97% gain, closing at $3.1076. The token outperformed the broader market (1.69%) and held above the psychological $3 level for the second consecutive session. Traders are watching the following technical levels:
* Support: $3, $2.8, and $2.5.
* Resistance: $3.335 and the all-time high at $3.66.
In the near term, several key events could drive price action:
* Spot ETFs: Approval or delays of spot ETF filings would influence demand. A BlackRock (BLK) iShares XRP Trust application would be a potential price catalyst.
* Institutional Adoption: Blue-chip companies could purchase XRP as a treasury reserve asset, potentially narrowing its supply.
* Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s US-chartered bank license application, Market Structure Bill-related updates, and SWIFT developments may further influence sentiment.
Catalysts & Scenarios
The outlook hinges on corporate, macroeconomic, and regulatory events. Potential price scenarios include:
Bearish Scenario
* Legislative roadblocks, including Democratic Party resistance to the Market Structure Bill, or delays to crypto-friendly regulations.
* Blue-chip companies show no interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset option.
* OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
* SWIFT maintains global remittance dominance, capping Ripple’s market access.
These bearish events could push XRP below $3, with $2.8 and $2.5 the next key support levels.
Bullish Scenario
* BlackRock files for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approves spot ETFs.
* Blue-chip companies acquire and hold XRP as treasury reserves, and more payment platforms adopt Ripple technology.
* Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Senate passes the Market Structure Bill, fueling Main Street adoption.
* SWIFT loses market share of global remittances to Ripple.
These events could send the token above its record high of $3.66 (Binance).
