XRP price has risen about 7% over the past three days. It bounced from about $1.95 and moved close to $2.23, which helped traders feel more confident after a weak week.
But even with this small recovery, the Ripple coin chart shows a warning sign that can still pull the price back down.
Some long-term holders are selling into the rise, and one of the most important moving-average signals is close to turning negative. Because of this, the next few price levels matter more than usual.
XRP price traded near $2.23, but the chart shows that the 100-day moving average is close to crossing under the 200-day moving average.
A moving average is a simple line that shows the average price over many days. When the faster line (100-day) moves under the slower one (200-day), it forms a bearish crossover.
This move usually tells traders that the short-term trend is weaker than the long-term trend.
If this crossover happens, the Ripple coin price may move back toward $2.08, and if that fails, it may return to $1.95. That is about a 7% drop from current levels.
This is why the recent bounce still carries some risk. The chart also shows no strong reversal pattern yet, so buyers must be careful.
Another problem comes from long-term holders. Glassnode data shows that the hodler net-position change jumped from 54,039,553 XRP to 62,353,354 XRP in just two days.
This metric tells us how many coins long-term holders are adding or removing.
A rise here means they are sending coins to exchanges, which often happens when they want to sell. This same pattern appeared before earlier corrections, which makes this bounce a bit shaky.
Even with these warnings, XRP price still has some support from global demand. The ripple coin became the number-one traded asset on Upbit, which is the largest exchange in South Korea.
This means Asian traders are buying a lot of XRP right now. Strong demand from one region often gives short-term help to the price.
It shows interest is still alive, even when long-term holders are reducing their coins.
There are also long-term positive signs. Six XRP ETFs are already live in some regions, and 13 more are being reviewed. ETFs are investment products that help big funds buy crypto easily.
They usually take time to affect the price, just like early Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
In addition, Franklin Templeton said Ripple coin plays a “foundational role” in global settlement work. This means they see XRP as useful for cross-border transactions.
These parts help long-term confidence, but they do not fix the short-term weakness caused by the possible bearish crossover.
The next few XRP price levels will decide whether this bounce grows or dies.
If buyers push Ripple coin above $2.57, the recovery becomes stronger. This level also matches the 50% Fibonacci retracement, which is a tool traders use to measure how deep or strong a move is. Breaking this level usually shows growing strength.
But if XRP price fails to stay above $2.23-$2.08, the chart can easily pull back toward $1.95. That level was the floor that stopped the last drop. If it breaks again, sellers may take control, and the bounce may fade.
Some analysts also hint at $2 support.
Right now, the XRP price is caught between strength from Asian demand and weakness from long-term holders selling. The chart gives a clear warning, and the bearish crossover is close.
Meanwhile, Ripple coin can still rise if buyers break $2.57, but until that happens, the risk of a return to $1.95 stays on the table.
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