Notably, WisdomTree withdrew its S-1 for an XRP-spot ETF last week, while Morgan Stanley filed S-1s for BTC-spot and SOL-spot ETFs. The ETF issuers’ stance on XRP came despite the XRP-spot ETF market outperforming the US BTC-spot and SOL-spot ETF markets.
For context, the US SOL-spot ETF market reported $816.92 million in net inflows since the October launch. Meanwhile, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw net outflows of $2.94 billion since the Canary XRP ETF launched on November 14.
Canary Funds CEO Steve McClurg expects XRP to diverge from BTC and the broader crypto market in 2026, stating:
“XRP, I believe, is going to be a divergent asset, actually. […] Altcoins typically follow Bitcoin, but there are a handful of assets that I do believe will diverge in this manner and just watching XRP perform as everything’s going straight down and we continue to get inflows every day and continue to hold up, I believe that it could look like another peak in XRP in 2026, when most of other crypto assets are going to be down.”
Notably, crypto market price trends in early 2026 suggest an XRP decoupling is already underway. While XRP has risen 11.5% year-to-date, BTC has gained 4.51%, while the total crypto market cap has increased 5.15%.
Increased XRP utility, strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs, and the Market Structure Bill’s progress on Capitol Hill continue supporting a cautiously bullish short-term (1-4 weeks) and bullish medium-term (4-8 weeks) price outlook.
While XRP-spot ETF demand and XRP utility are crucial for XRP’s price outlook, the Market Structure Bill’s progress on Capitol Hill remains key.
This week, the market focus will be on the US Senate Banking Committee’s January 15 Market Structure Bill markup. XRP remains highly sensitive to crypto-related regulatory developments, given the resolution of the SEC vs. Ripple case in August 2025.
Over the weekend, the US Senate Banking Committee fueled optimism over the Market Structure Bill, stating:
“Chairman Senator Tim Scott is moving forward on digital asset market structure legislation – delivering clear rules that protect Main Street, keep innovation here at home, and safeguard US national security.”
The approved draft text from the US Senate Banking Committee would shift the market focus to the US Senate Agriculture Committee, which also needs to clear text for merging.
A Senate floor vote on the merged text would be the next step. If passed, the US House of Representatives would need to then pass the Bill to President Trump. The timing of the rollout of crypto-friendly legislation may ultimately hinge on whether the House makes changes to the merged text.
Crypto in America host Eleanor Terrett recently commented on the timings, stating:
“And March is the absolute earliest. Could even be the summer if the House decided to make changes to what the Senate sends them.”
Importantly, delays to the Market Structure Bill’s progress would challenge XRP’s bullish outlook, given previous price action.
For context, XRP surged 14.69% on July 17 after the House passed the Market Structure Bill to the Senate. However, the US government shutdown stalled the Bill’s progress in H2 2025. XRP fell from a July 18 all-time high of $3.66 to a December low of $1.7712 before the January recovery.
