Investor optimism over US lawmakers passing the Market Structure Bill has been a key price catalyst for XRP. At year-end, the US Senate Banking Committee announced a January 15 markup date for the Market Structure Bill. XRP has soared 27% since, underscoring the token’s sensitivity to legislative developments.
Analysts view the Market Structure Bill as the final step to legitimizing XRP as a non-security following the resolution of the SEC vs. Ripple case.
In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP did not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test. The SEC filed an appeal against the ruling before withdrawing its legal challenge in early 2025. The US Court of Appeals approved the SEC and Ripple’s appeal withdrawal requests in August 2025, enforcing Judge Torres’ ruling on the programmatic sales of XRP.
The 2023 ruling and the appeal withdrawals paved the way to the US XRP-spot ETF market, given the absence of clear rules and regulations for the US digital asset space.
Crucially, analysts expect the Market Structure Bill to untap a new investor pool, more akin to trading products under robust regulatory oversight. Given XRP’s real-world utility, crypto experts predict a decoupling in 2026 from Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market.
Steven McClurg, Canary Funds CEO, recently discussed a potential decoupling, stating:
“XRP, I believe, is going to be a divergent asset, actually. […] Altcoins typically follow Bitcoin, but there are a handful of assets that I do believe will diverge in this manner and just watching XRP perform as everything’s going straight down and we continue to get inflows every day and continue to hold up, I believe that it could look like another peak in XRP in 2026, when most of other crypto assets are going to be down.”
Notably, XRP has rallied 29.13% year-to-date, while BTC has risen by a more modest 7.38%, supporting McClurg’s prediction.
Strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs and the progress of the Market Structure Bill reaffirm the bullish short- to medium-term price outlook.
Resilient demand for XRP-spot ETFs and the progress toward crypto-friendly legislation reaffirmed the bullish short-term (1-4 weeks) outlook, with a $2.5 price target. Meanwhile, increased utility, hopes for Fed rate cuts, and expectations of the Senate passing the Market Structure Bill reinforced the positive longer-term price trajectories:
Several events could derail the positive outlook. These include:
These events would likely trigger a reversal, pushing XRP below $2, which would signal a bearish trend reversal.
XRP rallied 12.25% on Monday, January 5, following the previous day’s 3.59% gain, closing at $2.3470. The token mirrored the broader crypto market cap, which climbed 2.67%.
A five-day winning streak and early gains on Tuesday, January 6, sent XRP above its 200-day EMA. Currently trading above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, the technical indicators align with the fundamentals, signaling bullish momentum.
Key technical levels to watch include:
Viewing the daily chart, a sustained break above the 200-day EMA would signal a bullish trend reversal, bringing the $2.5 resistance level into play.
Crucially, the breakout above the EMAs reinforced the bullish medium-term outlook and the longer-term (8-12 weeks) $3.66 price target.
