The US XRP-spot ETF market saw $15.55 million in inflows on Tuesday, December 30. According to SoSoValue, issuers reported total volume traded of $50.16 million, setting the stage for an 8-week inflow streak. The US XRP-spot ETF market has yet to report an outflow to date, since launching on November 14, 2025, with total net inflows rising to $1.16 billion.
By contrast, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net outflows of $2.74 billion since November 14, 2025, supporting the decoupling theory. Crucially, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) had net outflows of $2.2 billion, potentially incentivizing the ETF issuer to consider an iShares XRP Trust.
An iShares XRP Trust launch would be another price catalyst, given IBIT’s dominant $62 billion of inflows since launching in January 2024.
Spot ETF flow trends reflect sentiment and the supply-demand trajectory, supporting a decoupling from BTC.
Steven McClurg believed BTC entered a bear cycle, contrasting with the bullish view on XRP, stating:
“There’s been a lot of talk about the four-year cycle, and I know Matt, and I have different opinions of the four-year cycle of Bitcoin. But I’m in the camp of, yeah, a four-year cycle is still in effect. Mining activity still very much drives price, even though it’s becoming more and more muted in every four years, it will become more muted. But my belief is that Bitcoin peaked in October and it’s already going into its bear cycle.”
Progress toward crypto-friendly legislation and strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs support the cautiously bullish short-term (1-4 weeks) outlook, with a $2.0 price target. Meanwhile, increased utility, Fed rate cuts, and the Senate passing the Market Structure Bill would reinforce the positive longer-term price trajectories:
Several events could derail the positive outlook. These include:
These events would likely push the token toward $1.75, signaling a bearish trend reversal.
XRP rose 1.45% on Tuesday, December 30, reversing the previous day’s 0.77% loss to close at $1.8762. The token outperformed the broader crypto market, which gained 1.16%.
Despite Tuesday’s rally, XRP remained below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating a bearish bias. While technicals remain bearish, bullish fundamentals are developing, outweighing the technical structure.
Key technical levels to watch include:
Looking at the daily chart, a breakout above the $2.0 psychological level would pave the way to the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal, bringing the 200-day EMA and the $2.5 resistance level into play.
A sustained move through the EMAs would affirm the bullish medium-term outlook and the longer-term (8-12 weeks) $3.0 price target.
